AMP Limited (AMP) is one of Australia’s best-known financial services groups, operating across wealth management, superannuation, platforms, and banking. The business today looks very different from the AMP of a decade ago. After years of simplification, asset sales, and cost restructuring, the company is now more focused, smaller in scope, and increasingly oriented around capital-light wealth and retirement solutions.
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The stock has spent much of the past few years in a recovery phase, with investor sentiment shaped by a mix of skepticism and cautious optimism. While AMP shares have rebounded meaningfully from their lows, the market remains unconvinced that earnings growth can be sustained beyond the early turnaround benefits. That tension has kept valuation multiples compressed despite improved operating performance.
Heading into FY26, the setup is clearer. AMP is no longer selling businesses or shrinking for survival. Instead, the focus has shifted toward stabilizing cash flows, improving margins, and selectively investing in growth areas such as retirement solutions and digital banking. That transition is what analysts are now re-evaluating.
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Financial Story
AMP’s latest half-year results showed tangible progress beneath the surface. Underlying net profit after tax rose 9.2% to A$131 million, supported by higher earnings across Platforms, AMP Bank, and New Zealand Wealth Management. Importantly, underlying EPS increased 18.2% to 5.2 cents, helped by improved profitability and the tail end of the company’s share buyback program.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (1Y CAGR) | (4.3%) |
| Revenue Growth (5Y CAGR) | 24.7% |
| Net Income Margin | ~15% |
| EPS Growth (5Y CAGR) | ~19% |
| Free Cash Flow Conversion | Strong, improving |
| Current Share Price | ~A$1.82 |
| Mid-Case Target Price (2029E) | ~A$2.22 |
| Total Upside (Mid-Case) | ~22% |
| Annualized Return (Mid-Case) | ~5% |
Cash flow momentum was one of the most notable developments, as the platform’s net cash flows nearly doubled, up 98.7% year over year, while Superannuation & Investments returned to positive quarterly net flows for the first time since 2017. Assets under management climbed to A$153.9 billion, reflecting both market tailwinds and improved client retention.
Cost discipline remains central to the story. Controllable costs declined 4.4%, absorbing inflation while staying in line with management’s FY25 commitments. That cost control, combined with steadier revenue, has allowed margins to stabilize and earnings quality to improve, even as AMP continues to invest in digital initiatives like AMP Bank GO.
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Broader Market Context
Australia’s wealth management sector is in a period of gradual normalization. Market volatility has eased compared to prior years, and higher asset values are supporting fee revenue across platforms and retirement products. At the same time, regulatory pressure and fee compression continue to limit how aggressively firms can grow top-line revenue.
For AMP, this environment favors scale, cost discipline, and client stickiness over expansion at any cost. Retirement-focused products, particularly those addressing longevity risk, are seeing rising demand as demographics shift. Banks, meanwhile, face margin pressure, making AMP Bank’s focus on targeted, higher-margin niches increasingly relevant.
1. Platforms and Retirement Momentum
AMP’s Platforms business has quietly become the backbone of the group. Growth in managed portfolios and retirement products has driven stronger inflows, helping offset margin compression from tiered pricing structures. While headline margins have edged lower, underlying economics have improved as scale increases.
The MyNorth Lifetime solution has emerged as a key differentiator. Assets continue to grow, and AMP has expanded access through Lifetime Super, now available to a large base of existing super members. Analysts are watching this closely because retirement solutions tend to deliver longer-duration, more predictable revenue streams.
2. Banking as a Complement, Not a Driver
AMP Bank is no longer being positioned as a growth engine in its own right. Instead, management is treating it as a complementary business that enhances client relationships and delivers incremental earnings. Underlying NPAT rose modestly to A$36 million, with net interest margin holding at 1.30%.
The launch of AMP Bank GO reflects a targeted strategy. Rather than chasing scale, the bank is focusing on digitally-served segments with better margin potential, including sole traders and small businesses. Early customer uptake has been steady, and analysts are monitoring whether this can translate into sustainable profitability without meaningfully increasing risk.
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3. Capital Discipline and Earnings Quality
Capital management remains central to the investment case. The completion of AMP’s buyback program has improved per-share metrics, while dividends are now more predictable. The declared 2.0-cent interim dividend, 20% franked, reinforces management’s confidence in cash-flow stability.
More importantly, earnings quality has improved. One-off items and restructuring noise are becoming less prominent, making underlying performance easier to assess. As a result, analysts are beginning to focus less on AMP’s past missteps and more on whether current returns justify a re-rating.
The TIKR Takeaway
AMP Limited today is a simpler, more disciplined business than the market has been used to evaluating. Earnings are steadier, cash flows are improving, and capital allocation is more transparent. While growth remains modest, the valuation reflects a business that is no longer shrinking and may not need aggressive expansion to deliver acceptable returns.
Should You Buy, Sell, or Hold AMP Stock in 2025?
For investors, the debate is shifting from turnaround risk to opportunity cost. AMP is unlikely to deliver outsized growth, but its improving earnings quality, retirement exposure, and disciplined capital management may appeal to those seeking stability rather than acceleration. How the market prices that trade-off will likely define AMP’s next phase.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
