Key Takeaways:
- Option Care Health serves 600 million patients annually through 170 infusion sites, with 96% U.S. coverage.
- Based on current growth trends, OPCH stock could reach $41.59 per share by December 2027.
- This target implies a 27.8% total return from the current $32.55 price, or about 12.9% annually.
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Option Care Health (OPCH) operates as America’s largest independent home infusion services provider, delivering medications and care directly to patients’ homes.
The company posted third-quarter 2025 revenue growth of 12%, driven by mid-teens expansion in acute therapies and low double-digit gains in chronic treatments.
With a market cap of over $5 billion, Option Care stock has returned 42% in 2025. Let’s examine whether this healthcare provider can stage a recovery over the next 24 months.
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What the Model Says for OPCH Stock
We evaluated Option Care’s upside by examining its shift toward higher-margin acute care and the expansion of its infusion suite network.
Using a forecast of 9.8% annual revenue growth and 6.3% operating margins, our model projects the stock will rise from $33 to $42 over the next two years. That would be a 28% total return, or a 13% annualized return over the next 2.0 years.
The model assumes the market applies a reasonable 18x P/E multiple—significantly lower than the company’s 3-year average of 24x.
Our Valuation Assumptions
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Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for OPCH stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 9.8%
Option Care’s growth stems from two major drivers: acute care expansion and chronic therapy diversification.
The company’s acute therapy business grew mid-teens in Q3 2025, benefiting from competitor exits and hospital partnerships.
The acute side requires tight coordination with referral sources and exceptional pharmacy responsiveness.
Option Care handles thousands of patient transitions daily from hospital to home settings. Management expects this momentum to continue into 2026, albeit at a slightly slower pace.
On the chronic side, the company is navigating headwinds from Stelara biosimilar competition, which created a 380-basis-point drag on growth in Q3.
However, partnerships with manufacturers like Gilead, UroGen, and Quince are adding new revenue streams.
We believe a 9.8% annual growth rate is achievable as the company captures market share from smaller competitors and expands its advanced practitioner model across its 170-site network.
2. Operating margins: 6.3%
Profitability continues to improve as Option Care leverages its national scale. The company conducted over 175,000 nursing visits in Q3, with 34% occurring in infusion suites rather than homes—a more efficient delivery model.
Management is investing in AI and advanced analytics to drive operational efficiency. They launched three new applications in Q3 focused on patient onboarding, staffing utilization, and delivery optimization.
The advanced practitioner model represents another margin opportunity. By adding nurse practitioners to select sites, Option Care can serve higher-acuity patients and expand into new Medicare fee-for-service segments.
We forecast operating margins to average 6.3% through 2028, slightly below the current 6.4% but accounting for continued investments in technology and site expansion.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 18x
The market currently values Option Care at a price-to-earnings multiple of roughly 17.9x (next twelve months).
Historically, the stock has traded at an average of 24x over the past three years. Our model uses a conservative 18x multiple, only slightly above current levels.
If the company continues proving it can grow despite Stelara headwinds and expand margins through operational leverage, this multiple could easily expand, providing additional upside beyond our current target.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Different scenarios for OPCH stock through 2030 show varied outcomes based on acute care growth momentum and Stelara transition impact (these are estimates, not guaranteed returns):
- Low Case: If revenue growth slows to 7.7% and margin expansion stalls at 4.6%, the stock delivers a 3% annual return.
- Mid Case: With 8.5%-9.8% revenue growth and steady margin gains to 6.3%, the stock delivers a 9% annual return.
- High Case: If Option Care becomes the dominant home infusion provider and fully monetizes its infusion suite network, returns could reach 15% annually.
Even in the conservative case, Option Care offers reasonable returns, supported by its unique position as the only national-scale independent provider, deepening relationships with payers focused on reducing medical costs, and a massive runway for site-of-care shift from expensive hospital settings to lower-cost home and ambulatory care.
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How Much Upside Does Option Care Health Stock Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
