Key Takeaways:
- NCR Atleos is scaling ATM-as-a-Service with 37% growth, delivering record recycler production and achieving net leverage below the 3x target.
- NATL stock could reasonably reach $49 per share by December 2027, based on our valuation assumptions.
- This implies a total return of 26% from today’s price of $39, with an annualized return of 12% over the next 2.0 years.
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NCR Atleos (NATL) manages over 500,000 ATMs worldwide through two main paths:
- Self-Service Banking: They sell the machines, software, and maintenance to banks.
- Network: They own and operate 81,000 ATMs in popular retail locations, such as grocery stores, across 13 countries.
In the third quarter, revenue hit $1.07 billion. More importantly, adjusted earnings per share jumped 22% to $1.09.
Under CEO Tim Oliver, the company has also focused on paying down debt, bringing its leverage ratio below its 3.0x target.
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What the Model Says for NATL Stock
To estimate where the stock is going, we looked at revenue growth, profit margins, and how the market values the company (P/E multiple).
Our model suggests that if the company grows revenue by roughly 3% annually and keeps margins steady, the stock should climb from $39 to $49 over the next two years.
That would be a 26% total return, or a 12% annualized return over the next 2.0 years.
Our Valuation Assumptions
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Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for NATL stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 3.1%
While 3% sounds modest, the “mix” of revenue is getting better. The highlight is ATM-as-a-Service, which grew 37% to $67 million this quarter. This is a recurring-revenue model in which banks pay a monthly fee instead of buying a machine upfront.
Additionally, “recycler” ATMs are in high demand. These machines are smarter—they accept deposited cash and immediately use it for withdrawals, saving banks money on armored-car services.
In 2025, Atleos increased the sale of these machines by 60% year over year. While hardware sales might level off after a busy 2025, the steady growth in service contracts should keep the top line moving upward.
2. Operating margins: 16.5%
Profitability continues to improve as the company is focused on operational efficiency. The “Service First” program helped boost customer satisfaction scores by 30%. Moreover, by using AI to coordinate repairs, they are fixing machines faster and more cheaply.
There are some hurdles, like import tariffs, which cost the company about $25 million this year. However, management is already planning for these costs in 2026.
Even with these expenses, the profit margins in the banking segment remain healthy, and the company expects to improve free cash flow as it optimizes operations.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 8x
Currently, NATL stock trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of about 8.4x. This is relatively low, partly because Atleos is a new, smaller company that only recently spun off on its own.
We used a conservative 8.0x multiple for our 2027 forecast. As the company continues to hit its targets and begins buying back $200 million of its own shares, investors may start to view the stock as a more stable, reliable “utility-like” investment.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Different scenarios for NATL stock through 2030 show varied outcomes based on ATM-as-a-Service adoption pace and tariff resolution (these are estimates, not guaranteed returns):
- Low Case: If growth in service contracts slows down and tariffs stay high, we expect a modest 5% annual return.
- Mid Case: If the company continues its current path and manages costs well, we see a 12% annual return.
- High Case: If banks move to outsource their ATMs even faster than expected, the return could hit 17% annually.
Even in a cautious scenario, NCR Atleos’ shift toward a subscription-based model provides a safety net for investors looking for steady growth in the financial tech space.
NCR Atleos is quickly becoming a leader in the “subscription” banking world. By shifting from one-time hardware sales to long-term service contracts, the company is building a more predictable and profitable business.
With record demand for its high-tech “recycler” ATMs and a strengthening balance sheet, the stock appears positioned for steady growth.
See what analysts think about NATL stock right now (Free with TIKR) >>>
How Much Upside Does NATL Stock Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
