Key Stats for Simon Property Stock
- This Week Performance: -3.3%
- 52-Week Range: $136.3 to $205.1
- Current Price: $187.6
What Happened?
Record real estate FFO of $4.8 billion in 2025 confirmed Simon Property Group (SPG), the largest U.S. mall REIT, as a cash-compounding machine trading at $188 with a leasing pipeline now 15% above last year.
Simon’s February 2 earnings report delivered Q4 revenue of $1.80 billion against a $1.51 billion consensus estimate, while 2026 Real Estate FFO guidance of $13.00 to $13.25 per share cleared the $13.08 Street estimate at its midpoint.
Portfolio NOI, the net operating income Simon collects across its 254 properties, the clearest measure of landlord pricing power rose 4.7% to $6.1 billion for the full year, with U.S. mall and outlet occupancy at 96.4% and average base rent up 4.7% to $60.97 per square foot.
Eli Simon, Chief Operating Officer, stated on the Q4 2025 earnings call that “the pipeline is up about 15% over last year, and that’s really broad-based across all categories,” then added that tariffs caused only four or five lease cancellations out of 4,600 signed across the full year.
With a $4 billion shadow development pipeline, a new $2.0 billion buyback program replacing one with $1.7 billion remaining, and a $250 million redevelopment of three former Taubman assets now underway, Simon is converting its full TRG ownership into a multi-year NOI acceleration story.
Wall Street’s Take on SPG Stock
The February 2 earnings beat — $1.80 billion in Q4 revenue against a $1.51 billion estimate — directly validated SPG’s core thesis: that scarce, high-quality mall real estate commands pricing power that flows almost entirely to the bottom line.
SPG’s EBITDA margins held at 78.8% in 2025 and the consensus model projects them staying above 78% through 2027, while normalized EPS accelerates from $5.91 in 2025 to $6.60 in 2026, an 11.7% jump anchored by rent per square foot rising 4.7% and new lease rents printing at $65.
Nine analysts rate SPG a buy or outperform, twelve hold, and zero sell; the consensus mean price target of $206.15 implies 9.9% upside from the current $187.57, a modest premium that understates the compounding case given the $4 billion shadow redevelopment pipeline management has not yet begun to deploy.
The spread between the $184 low target and the $250 high target reflects two genuinely different outcomes: the low anchors to tariff-driven retailer stress and Saks Global fallout, while the high prices in full execution of the Taubman integration, the Copley, Tampa, and Nashville redevelopments, and a sustained 96%-plus occupancy rate.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
The TIKR mid-case model targets $246.33 by December 2030, implying a 31.3% total return and a 5.8% annualized IRR from $187.57, driven by a 5.2% revenue CAGR and net income margins expanding toward 37.9% as TRG assets stabilize and redevelopment yields average 9%.
The market is pricing SPG at 1.03x NAV per share — essentially book value — despite a leasing pipeline that is 15% above last year and new lease rents already running $4 above the portfolio average of $60.97.
Management’s own guidance of at least 3% domestic NOI growth in 2026, the same floor it has beaten for four consecutive years, anchors the TIKR model’s revenue assumption and makes the 5.2% forward CAGR look conservative rather than aggressive.
The February 5 announcement of a $2.0 billion buyback replacing a program with $1.7 billion remaining signals that management sees the current price as a misvaluation, adding a direct per-share earnings accretion mechanism on top of the NOI growth story.
The primary risk is tariff-driven retailer bankruptcies beyond the Saks and Catalyst events already absorbed: if tenant stress spreads to mid-tier apparel anchors, the 96.4% occupancy assumption underpinning both the NOI model and the EBITDA margin floor breaks.
Watch the Q1 2026 earnings call for the first reported occupancy read after the Off Fifth lease rejections; if occupancy holds at or above 96% and replacement rents on those boxes track toward the projected $30 million figure, the TIKR mid-case gains significant credibility.
SPG is a near-80% EBITDA margin compounder with a $4 billion redevelopment pipeline, a 9% blended development yield, and a $2 billion buyback, trading at essentially NAV while the Street assigns it zero sells.
Should You Invest in Simon Property Group, Inc.?
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Pull up SPG stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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