Key Stats for GE Vernova Stock
- 52-Week Range: $459 to $1,182
- Current Price: $934
- Street Mean Target: $1,216
- Street High Target: $1,424
- Analyst Consensus: 23 Buys / 6 Outperforms / 8 Holds / 1 Underperform / 1 Sell
- TIKR Model Target (Dec. 2030): $3,124
GE Vernova Stock Hit $1,182, Then Pulled Back. What the Backlog Says the Market Is Missing.
GE Vernova (GEV), the global power equipment and grid infrastructure company spun from General Electric in April 2024, reported Q1 2026 earnings that turned what was already a strong story into something harder to ignore, and GE Vernova stock is now trading around $934, roughly 21% below its 52-week high of $1,182.
The pullback has nothing to do with the business.
Q1 orders hit $18.3 billion, up 71% year over year, pushing total backlog to $163 billion from $116 billion at spin just two years ago.
Revenue came in at $9.34 billion, up 16% year over year, beating the Street estimate of around $9.22 billion.
Adjusted EBITDA grew 87% to around $896 million, with margin expanding 390 basis points in a single quarter.
Management raised full-year 2026 guidance on revenue, EBITDA margin, and free cash flow simultaneously, a move that signals confidence across the entire operating structure rather than just one segment.
Free cash flow for the quarter alone reached $4.79 billion, meaningfully above the company’s full-year 2025 free cash flow of $3.7 billion.
CEO Scott Strazik put the scope of the opportunity plainly at the Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference in May: “We’re generating 25% of the world’s electricity every day. It’s about 50% of this country, the U.S.’s electricity every day.”
The equipment backlog tells the more important story: it grew 80% since the April 2024 spin, and that equipment converts into an installed base, which then generates long-duration services revenue at higher margins.
GE Vernova now expects to reach $200 billion in total backlog by 2027, one year ahead of its prior guidance.
Gas Power signed 21 gigawatts of new agreements in Q1 alone, moving total gigawatts under contract from 83 to 100.
Electrification, the company’s fastest-growing segment, saw orders grow 86% year over year to around $7.1 billion in Q1, with data center-related orders exceeding all of full-year 2025 in a single quarter.
The Prolec acquisition, closed in February for around $5.3 billion, gave GEV full control of a transformer and grid equipment business with roughly $5 billion in backlog and immediate access to North American markets the prior joint venture structure had restricted.
The wind segment remains a drag, with EBITDA losses of $382 million in Q1, but management has guided Wind losses to approximately $400 million for the full year, with a second-half improvement driven by higher turbine shipments and better services profitability.
Why 29 Analysts Back GE Vernova Stock With a Mean Target Near $1,216
The Street is not split on GE Vernova stock.
The 29 buy-side or outperform ratings against 8 holds and 2 negatives reflect near-unanimous conviction that GEV’s operating leverage is still in the early innings.
The mean price target of around $1,216 implies approximately 30% upside from the current price, and the high target of $1,424 implies roughly 52% upside from here.
Consensus revenue for Q2 2026 is around $10.72 billion, a 17.6% increase year over year, and the EBITDA margin is expected to reach approximately 12% in Q2 before expanding toward roughly 14.5% by Q4.
The EBITDA trajectory is the central argument: from 9.6% in Q1 2026 to an estimated 17.5% by Q1 2027, that is a roughly 800-basis-point expansion over four quarters as Power and Electrification continue to grow their higher-margin backlog.
Full-year 2026 EBITDA is estimated at approximately $5.3 billion, with consensus projecting around $9 billion by the end of 2027 on roughly $48 billion of revenue.
Free cash flow is set to follow the same trajectory, with estimates pointing toward around $1.62 billion in Q2 2026 and the full-year 2026 guidance range of $6.5 billion to $7.5 billion representing a roughly 75% increase over 2025.
Strazik underscored the services compounding dynamic that underpins analyst conviction: “That $76 billion equipment backlog has grown 80% since we spun from General Electric in April of ’24. And as we execute on that $76 billion of equipment backlog, that drives that much larger installed base that’s driving that much larger and more profitable services business for us into the next decade.”
The gas turbine pricing data sharpens the upside case further: orders in the first half of 2026 are priced 10 to 20 percentage points higher on a dollar-per-kilowatt basis than fourth-quarter 2025 orders, and those price gains will flow into backlog before they show up in earnings.
With 100 gigawatts of gas turbines under contract across nearly 90 distinct customers in 24 countries, the demand picture is not tied to a single end market or geography.
GE Vernova Stock Is Closing the EBITDA Margin Gap With Eaton Faster Than the Market Expects
GE Vernova stock entered 2025 running EBITDA margins of 8.45%, roughly 14 percentage points behind Eaton’s (ETN) 22.92% in the same period, a gap that looked structural to anyone pricing GEV on current earnings rather than backlog conversion.
By Q1 2026, GEV’s EBITDA margin had reached 9.59% while Eaton held at 21.37%, still a wide spread, but the vectors had already diverged sharply.
Consensus estimates put GE Vernova stock’s EBITDA margin at 11.79% in Q2 2026, 14.53% by Q3, and 17.38% by Q4, a roughly 800-basis-point expansion across three quarters, while Eaton is projected to hold relatively steady in the 22% to 25% range through the same period.
By Q1 2027, the gap narrows to approximately 5 percentage points: GEV at 17.49% versus Eaton at 23.53%, and by Q2 2027, GEV is estimated at 18.48% against Eaton’s 24.25%.
Eaton has a mature, high-quality margin profile and deserves its premium, but it does not have $163 billion in backlog converting at rising prices over the next four years.
The compression from an 14-point deficit to a 6-point deficit in under two years is the GE Vernova stock argument stated in a single chart.
GE Vernova Stock at $934 With a TIKR Mid-Case Path to $3,124 by 2030
The TIKR valuation model puts GE Vernova stock at approximately $3,124 by December 2030 in the mid case, a 234% total return at roughly 30% annualized, built on 12% annual revenue growth and 19.4% net income margins with P/E multiple compression of approximately 2% per year baked in throughout.
The return is earnings-driven, not multiple-expansion-driven, which matters: all three scenarios assume the P/E contracts over time, meaning the model is not counting on sentiment to do the work.
The low case 11% revenue CAGR, roughly 18% net income margins, tariff headwinds and wind losses persisting into 2027 still produces a target of approximately $3,620 and a total return of roughly 288% at an IRR of approximately 17%.
The high case adds a layer the mid case does not price: BWRX-300 SMR contracts accelerating into the revenue line, Electrification outpacing its $20 billion 2028 target, and AI-driven productivity arriving ahead of schedule. Under those assumptions, 13% revenue CAGR and roughly 21% net income margins produce a target of approximately $6,544, a total return of roughly 601%, and an IRR of approximately 26%.
The mid case, at approximately 21% annualized, requires nothing beyond what management has already guided: gas turbine pricing 10 to 20 points above the prior backlog converting through the P&L, Electrification hitting its stated margin targets, and Wind losses stabilizing in the second half of the year.
What is GE Vernova stock’s price target?
The Street mean target is approximately $1,216, and the high target is around $1,424.
The TIKR mid-case valuation model sets a target of approximately $3,124 by December 2030, reflecting a roughly 30% annual return from the current price of around $934.
Is GE Vernova stock a buy in 2026?
Twenty-nine of 39 analysts covering GEV have buy or outperform ratings, with only 8 holds and 2 negatives.
The company has $163 billion in backlog, raised full-year 2026 guidance on revenue, EBITDA margin, and free cash flow after Q1, and trades roughly 21% below its 52-week high of $1,182.
Should You Invest in GE Vernova Inc.?
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