Key Stats for Pfizer Stock
- Current Price: $28.28
- Target Price (Mid): ~$29
- Street Target: ~$29
- Potential Total Return: ~4%
- Annualized IRR: ~1% / year
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What Happened?
Four Wall Street firms raised their Pfizer (PFE) price targets between October 6 and October 9, and none of them changed its rating. JPMorgan moved to $30 from $28, and BofA to $29 from $27 and Cantor Fitzgerald to $28 from $27, all keeping Neutral ratings. Scotiabank raised its target to $33 from $30 and kept Outperform, which puts it above the Street mean of around $29. The stock closed at $28.28 on October 9, up 1.65%.
The firms gave different reasons. BofA described its raise as part of a Q3 preview. Cantor’s note, as summarized by TheFly, said the MEVPRO-1 prostate cancer trial has largely defined the near-term setup. Both point to near-term events.
The Targets Rose While the 2030 Forecast Barely Moved
Since September 30, consensus revenue for 2029 and 2030 has risen less than 0.3%, per TIKR. Consensus for 2026 is around $62 billion, near the top of Pfizer’s raised $60.5 billion to $62.5 billion guidance range. From there, analysts expect revenue to fall to around $54 billion in 2030. Pfizer has said patent expirations alone will cut 2026 revenue by about $1.5 billion.
Chairman and CEO Albert Bourla framed the offset in the company’s Q2 release on August 4: “Our launched and acquired products performed well, our obesity program is advancing with meaningful momentum and our oncology portfolio remains a source of strength.” The quarter beat on revenue and adjusted EPS, per Pfizer’s investor relations materials, though the company posted a GAAP loss of $0.04 per share.
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Tukysa Shows What Oncology Has to Carry, and What Competes With It
On October 7, the FDA approved Tukysa with trastuzumab and pertuzumab as front-line maintenance for HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer. In the HER2CLIMB-05 trial, median progression-free survival was 24.9 months versus 16.3 months on placebo, and overall survival data were not yet mature. The label carries a boxed warning for severe hepatotoxicity: the trial recorded five confirmed Hy’s Law cases, including one fatal case, and 8% of patients discontinued Tukysa because of liver toxicity. Tukysa sold $138 million worldwide in Q2, under 1% of revenue. Worldwide sales rose 5%, while U.S. sales fell 11%.
At a JPMorgan conference on September 22, Alexandre de Germay, Pfizer’s EVP and Chief International Commercial Officer, said he was “not sure the financial community is completely seeing” how Pfizer’s pipeline fits its existing sales teams. He pointed to CDK4 and KAT6 assets in Phase 3 behind IBRANCE. “It’s the same rep. It’s the same investment. But this time, you have 3, 4 assets,” he said.
He also flagged the competition. Half of all ADC and bispecific trials run in China, he said, and “Innovent is one of my top competitors in many categories.” China revenue rose to $3.13 billion in 2025 from $2.55 billion in 2024, per TIKR, so that contest plays out in a market that is still growing for Pfizer.
Separately, Florida’s attorney general sued Pfizer and Bourla on October 1 over COVID-19 vaccine marketing. The allegations are unproven, and Pfizer says they have no merit.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $28.28
- Target Price (Mid): ~$29
- Potential Total Return: ~4%
- Annualized IRR: ~1% / year
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The mid case assumes revenue shrinking around 1% a year and net margins around 26% across its 2025 to 2035 forecast. Returns are measured from $28.28. Shares yield 6.2%, per TIKR. Launched and acquired products and new oncology labels drive revenue, and cost cuts support margins. The primary risk is Chinese ADC and bispecific rivals competing for the same oncology patients while patent losses shrink the base. Upside requires a Phase 3 readout that the market can price. The downside is that revenue tracks consensus lower, and the stock never gets a reason to re-rate. Valuation context for the model’s case structure is covered in TIKR’s guide to price-to-earnings ratios.
Conclusion
Pfizer reports Q3 on the morning of November 3. Consensus expects revenue of around $15.9 billion and adjusted EPS of around $0.74, per TIKR. The quarter also books the $650 million Innovent upfront payment, which Pfizer expects to reduce EPS by about $0.10. Whether the consensus figure includes that charge is not clear. Revenue above $15.9 billion supports the new targets, but MEVPRO-1 results, not yet reported, matter more for the revenue Pfizer is expected to lose after 2026.
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So what is Pfizer stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
