Key Stats for Ford Stock
- Past-Week Performance: 3%
- 52-week Range: $8 to $15
- Valuation Model Target Price: $16
- Implied Upside: 14.3% over 1.9 years
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What Happened?
Ford Motor Company stock rose about 3% over the past week, finishing near $14 as buying interest picked up.
The stock moved higher as recently disclosed institutional filings showed meaningful net buying by long-term investors.
The National Pension Service increased its stake by 6.7%, adding 510,426 shares to reach 8,099,060 shares worth about $96.9 million, while the New York State Common Retirement Fund raised its position by 11.4% to 3,003,700 shares valued near $35.9 million.
These disclosures supported confidence in Ford’s near-term cash flow outlook and attracted incremental buying during the week.
Additional accumulation reinforced demand. Norges Bank disclosed a new Ford position valued at roughly $405 million, and Marshall Wace increased its stake by more than 700%.
Continued additions from Vanguard, Charles Schwab, Geode Capital, and BNY Mellon lifted total institutional ownership to 58.74% of shares outstanding, strengthening support at current price levels.
Late in the week, investors also digested new operational updates. Reuters reported that aluminum supplier Novelis has yet to resume full production following a September fire, with a second fire in November further delaying recovery.
The disruption previously led Ford to estimate lost production of up to 100,000 F-Series trucks and a potential impact of up to $2 billion, though Ford plans to offset roughly half of that and said it will provide an update during its February 10 earnings report.
Separately, Ford declared a $0.15 per share dividend for Q1 2026, reinforcing confidence in near-term cash flow despite ongoing supply constraints.
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Is Ford Undervalued?
Under valuation model assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 0.7%
- Operating Margins: 5.4%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 8.0x
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of $16, implying 14.3% total upside from recent levels over the next 1.9 years.
Results over the next year are likely shaped by Ford’s ability to maintain pricing and mix strength in trucks and hybrids while continuing to reduce losses in its EV business, where tighter cost control and platform simplification remain central to improving profitability.
Free cash flow trends remain important as capital spending moderates, inventories normalize, and Ford balances shareholder returns with a still-elevated debt load.
At current levels, Ford appears undervalued, with future performance likely driven by steady margin improvement and more consistent cash flow rather than aggressive growth or multiple expansion.
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