Key Stats for ExxonMobil Stock
- Current Price: $164.05
- Target Price (Mid): ~$162
- Street Target: ~$174
- Potential Total Return: ~-1%
- Annualized IRR: ~-0.3% / year
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What Happened?
The quarter that ended September 30 was ExxonMobil’s (XOM) first on a smaller share of Guyana’s oil. Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Neil Hansen told Reuters the company would book about 100,000 fewer barrels a day from Guyana starting in the third quarter. On the July 31 earnings call, he said Guyana’s free cash flow in 2030 should be twice its 2025 level.
Shares closed at $164.05 on October 7, 2026, up about 45% over the past year, per TIKR. ExxonMobil has not announced its third-quarter report date; Yahoo Finance lists October 30. The 2030 plan behind the cash claim is in the company’s investor relations materials.
Guyana Paid Back $55 Billion Two Years Early, So Exxon Keeps Fewer Barrels
Under the Stabroek contract, the Exxon-led group recovers costs from up to 75% of output and splits the remaining profit oil evenly with Guyana. With roughly $55 billion invested since 2014, now recouped, Guyana’s entitlement rose to 39.8% of production from 12.5% originally. Those barrels move to Guyana’s government.
At Barclays’ energy conference on September 9, Hansen said the payback “was not a surprise.” It came “a lot faster than we expected, I think, 2 years earlier, even when you adjust for the price impact.” On what that means for cash, he said: “this is about value. It’s not about volume.”
On the July call, management explained the math. With costs recovered, more of Guyana’s revenue flows to free cash flow instead of recovering investment. The fifth Guyana production vessel is planned to start in the fourth quarter of 2026, adding 250,000 barrels a day of capacity, and Hansen said Exxon is looking at advancing a ninth.
The cost math has been contested. Reuters reported in March that Exxon was in a dispute with Guyana’s government over some expense claims.
Company-wide, TIKR consensus puts free cash flow at around $52 billion in FY2026 and around $39 billion in FY2030, against $23.61 billion in FY2025. Consensus revenue falls about 18% in FY2029, a sign analysts expect current pricing to fade. The FY2030 revenue estimate rests on one analyst.
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Trinidad and Papua New Guinea Test the Guyana Playbook
Hansen said he thinks the payback “highlights that ExxonMobil is the partner of choice.” He also said resource owners are moving from open bids toward one-on-one talks. In a later answer, he said, “And you can destroy a lot of value if you have the wrong operator.” Exxon has invested $1 billion a year in exploration over the past five years, he noted.
- Trinidad and Tobago: Exxon operates the TTUD-1 deepwater block with 90% after Occidental Petroleum (OXY) took 10%. In August, the energy minister said seismic work finished six weeks early and that drilling infrastructure was being mobilized. No discovery has been announced.
- Papua New Guinea: On September 7, TotalEnergies (TTE) agreed to hand Papua LNG operatorship to ExxonMobil, citing synergies with the PNG LNG plant Exxon already runs. Exxon’s stake would rise to 34.1%, subject to a final investment decision planned for the fourth quarter of 2026.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $164.05
- Target Price (Mid): ~$162
- Potential Total Return: ~-1%
- Annualized IRR: ~-0.3% / year
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The mid case puts ExxonMobil at around $162 by December 31, 2030, about 1% below the October 7 close. It assumes:
- Revenue growth of around 1.6% a year (CAGR)
- A net margin near 10%
- EPS growth of around 5.5% a year
- A P/E ratio that drifts lower
The 10.3% margin sits near the past year’s 9.6%, so the mid case fits. The model runs on earnings, so it has no separate line for Guyana’s cash shift.
The primary risk is oil prices. ExxonMobil also trades around 13x NTM P/E, against around 7x for TotalEnergies. Higher margins from new Guyana vessels are the upside; a margin shortfall widens the small loss.
A Supreme Court ruling for Boulder in its climate case against ExxonMobil and Suncor (SU) would add legal risk. Justices appeared skeptical of Boulder at the October 5 argument.
Conclusion
Third-quarter results, expected in late October, are the test. Hansen called refining “the pinch point” of the supply shock, so refining could flatter the quarter. The cleaner read is Upstream, which earned $7.93 billion (GAAP) in the second quarter. Holding near that level with about 100,000 fewer Guyana barrels a day backs the value-over-volume case. A drop led by Upstream would push the 2030 claim onto vessels not yet producing.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
