Key Stats for ELF Stock
- Past week performance: 7.4%
- 52-week range: $49 to $15
- Valuation model target price: $122
- Implied upside: 15.7% over 2.6 years
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A Blowout Quarter Meets a Raised Outlook
e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) delivered a standout fiscal Q1 2027, and investors noticed. Net sales grew 36% to $479.4 million, crushing the $429.5 million analysts expected, while adjusted earnings per share of $1.75 dwarfed the $0.71 consensus estimate. Gross margin expanded 1,400 basis points to 83%, though about $50 million of that came from one-time IEEPA tariff refunds rather than ongoing operations.
Because the results were so strong, management raised full-year guidance meaningfully. e.l.f. now expects fiscal 2027 net sales growth of 18% to 20%, up from a prior forecast of 12% to 14%, and lifted adjusted EPS guidance to $3.50 to $3.55. Organic sales growth, which strips out the Rhode acquisition, is guided at 6% to 7% for the year.
International expansion is central to the story for e.l.f. Beauty as it pursues growth. e.l.f.’s international sales are still only about twenty percent of total revenue currently. Larger beauty competitors report seventy percent or more of revenue coming from international markets today. This gap leaves substantial room to grow for e.l.f. across global regions soon. Rhode is launching in nineteen European countries through Sephora this September officially. e.l.f. itself is entering Brazil while expanding at Boots in the United Kingdom. The brand is also expanding at DM stores in Germany to reach more customers.
CEO Tarang Amin called the results “another quarter of industry-leading results” on the earnings call, and the numbers back that up. If ELF stock keeps posting 30-plus consecutive quarters of growth while peers like Coty struggle, the next test comes at Q2 FY27 earnings in early November.
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Is e.l.f. Beauty Still a Bargain After This Run?
Under valuation model assumptions realized through 3/31/29, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 12.2%
- Operating Margins: 16.2%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 25.8x
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a $122 target price, implying 15.7% total upside from the current share price and a 5.8% annualized return over the next 2.6 years.
That 5.8% annualized figure sits near the lower end of attractive territory, which is notable given e.l.f.’s recent 36% revenue growth. The gap comes down to valuation. e.l.f. already trades at 34.9x forward earnings, so much of the growth story appears priced in, even after accounting for Rhode’s contribution and international upside.
Peer comparisons help explain the premium multiple. Estee Lauder just guided fiscal 2027 organic sales growth of just 3% to 5% after years of decline, while Coty reported fiscal 2026 revenue down 5% like-for-like, with adjusted EBITDA falling 22%. Against that backdrop, e.l.f.’s growth clearly stands out.
The value bet matters too. About 75% of e.l.f.’s products are priced at $10 or less, which is helping the brand gain share as consumers pull back spending elsewhere. That positioning, paired with international whitespace, supports the growth case, but investors are already paying a premium multiple for it.
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e.l.f. Beauty vs. Coty and Estee Lauder
Coty (COTY) posted fiscal 2026 net revenue of $5.8 billion, down 2% on a reported basis and 5% like-for-like, with adjusted EBITDA falling 22% to $846.9 million. That decline stands in sharp contrast to e.l.f.’s 36% growth, and it explains why Coty shares fell after withholding annual guidance entirely. Estee Lauder (EL), meanwhile, returned to growth after a multiyear slump, guiding fiscal 2027 organic sales growth of 3% to 5% and raising its adjusted operating margin outlook to 12.7% to 13.5%.
Both peers are recovering from weaker positions, while e.l.f. is compounding from strength. That gap in growth rates, 18% to 20% guided at e.l.f. versus mid-single digits at its larger rivals, is the clearest evidence that e.l.f.’s value positioning and Rhode acquisition are resonating even as the broader beauty category slows.
What’s Driving ELF Stock Going Forward?
Rhode’s European launch in September is the most concrete near-term catalyst. The brand is currently in fewer than 20% of Sephora stores worldwide, so international expansion alone could meaningfully lift sales if early demand mirrors its U.S. performance. Management noted a recent summer product drop generated $27 million in single-day sales and added 90,000 new customers, a signal of strong brand momentum heading into the rollout.
Beyond Rhode, e.l.f. is pushing into new categories domestically. e.l.f. Hair launched exclusively at Target with six products priced at $10 or less, and nearly half of early buyers were new to the brand. That category expansion strategy mirrors how e.l.f. SKIN grew, and management is now extending that playbook into Dollar General as well.
Tariff policy remains a wildcard. The $50 million refund received this quarter is being reinvested into pricing and marketing rather than banked as pure profit, which should support unit growth even as the one-time margin boost fades in future quarters. If Rhode’s European launch performs even close to expectations, it could be the next leg of growth investors are watching for.
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Should You Invest in e.l.f. Beauty?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up ELF, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
