Key Stats for Moderna Stock
- Price change for Moderna stock in last 1 month: 186%
- $MRNA Stock Price as of Aug. 25: $159
- 52-Week High: $177
- $MRNA Stock Price Target: $100
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What Happened?
Moderna (MRNA) stock has been on a wild ride, surging more than 38% in just the past 5 days. That rally picked up even more steam on Monday after Wolfe Research upgraded the stock to Peerperform from Underperform, following positive Phase 3 trial results for the company’s intismeran cancer therapy platform.
Wolfe Research said the trial results give Moderna and its partner Merck a clearer path toward regulatory approval for intismeran in adjuvant melanoma. The firm now estimates unadjusted peak sales across four indications could reach $9.2 billion, before profits get split with Merck.
There’s still some uncertainty here, though. The topline results didn’t disclose the actual level of reduction in cancer recurrence risk. Wolfe Research expects the recurrence-free survival hazard ratio to land somewhere between 0.60 and 0.70.
For context, the Phase 2 trial showed a hazard ratio of 0.56, and Wolfe Research noted that anything higher than 0.75 likely wouldn’t be seen as a meaningful improvement over Merck’s Keytruda.
Neither company has scheduled full data yet, but Wolfe Research expects it could be presented at the ESMO 2026 conference in Madrid on October 26-27.
Interestingly, Wolfe Research also pointed out that some of the stock’s dramatic move may be based on a misunderstanding. The firm ran a survey and found that many non-specialist and retail investors think of a “cancer vaccine” as something preventative, meant for people at risk of developing cancer.
That’s a much bigger market than the actual adjuvant melanoma population this therapy targets.
Moderna stock isn’t the only name getting fresh attention.
BofA Securities also upgraded the stock to Neutral from Underperform and raised its price target to $170, citing the same positive interim data.
Brookline Capital Markets kept its Buy rating and $135 price target after the mRNA-4157 Phase 3 melanoma trial, run jointly with Merck, hit both its primary and secondary goals.
Merck also got a lift, with Morgan Stanley upgrading it to Overweight and raising its price target to $179, citing a strong drug pipeline heading into the Keytruda patent cliff.
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What the Market Is Telling Us About Moderna Stock
The huge jump in Moderna stock shows how much investors have been waiting for good news from the company’s oncology pipeline.
According to InvestingPro, Moderna maintains a “GOOD” financial health score, even though the company still faces profitability challenges.
At the same time, InvestingPro flags Moderna stock as currently overvalued relative to its fair value estimate, suggesting the market’s excitement may be running ahead of the underlying numbers for now.
The broader reaction across vaccine and biotech stocks supports this.
The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index hit a record high on the back of this news, showing the excitement isn’t limited to Moderna stock alone.
Whether that enthusiasm holds will likely depend on what the full trial data shows when it’s finally presented, and whether the hazard ratio lands in a range investors consider genuinely meaningful.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
