Key Takeaways:
- Digital Transformation: Strong momentum in cloud-based platforms and AI-driven productivity tools.
- Price Projection: Based on current execution, ADSK stock could reach $310 by January 2028.
- Potential Gains: This target implies a total return of 23% from the current price of $253.
- Annual Return: Investors could see roughly 11% growth over the next 2 years.
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Autodesk (ADSK) just delivered another quarter of exceptional performance, with revenue jumping 18% to top guidance ranges while raising full-year outlook across the board.
The company generated record billings of over $7.4 billion and expanded non-GAAP operating margins to 38%, up 120 basis points year over year.
CEO Andrew Anagnost is executing a transformation centered on cloud-based platforms connecting design and construction workflows.
- ADSK reported strong growth in construction and infrastructure, driven by sustained investments in data centers and industrial buildings.
- Autodesk Construction Cloud is gaining serious traction with owners, general contractors, and designers seeking to reduce project risk and increase efficiency.
- The company expects to generate free cash flow exceeding $2.26 billion as it completes its transition to a new transaction model.
- Management also announced plans to repurchase $1.3 billion in stock, a 50% increase from the prior year.
Despite strong momentum across its business, Autodesk stock trades at $253, offering potential upside for investors who recognize the company’s platform advantage.
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What the Model Says for Autodesk Stock
We analyzed Autodesk’s evolution into a cloud-based platform provider that connects design, construction, and manufacturing workflows with AI-powered productivity tools.
- The company is capitalizing on the convergence of design and make in the cloud.
- Autodesk Construction Cloud now serves customers across the entire project lifecycle, from initial design through construction execution and ongoing operations.
- This end-to-end approach is displacing legacy point solutions and winning business from competitors.
- Management highlighted examples like the South Carolina Department of Transportation replacing legacy tools and the Flynn Group migrating to ACC to unify design and field execution.
In manufacturing, Fusion is driving strong growth, with higher extension attach rates and rising average selling prices.
The platform’s AI-powered features, such as Sketch AutoConstrain, have achieved a 60% adoption rate among commercial users, delivering measurable productivity gains that strengthen customer retention.
Using a forecast of 12.8% annual revenue growth and 38.3% operating margins, our model projects the stock will rise to $310 within 2 years. This assumes a 20.1x price-to-earnings multiple.
That represents compression from Autodesk’s historical P/E averages of 29x (one year) and 34x (five years).
The lower multiple acknowledges potential headwinds from ongoing go-to-market optimization and elevated macro uncertainty, despite management’s confidence in execution.
The real value lies in the company’s platform strategy. As customers adopt cloud-based workflows and AI-powered automation, Autodesk can capture incremental consumption revenue beyond traditional seat-based licensing.
Our Valuation Assumptions
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Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for ADSK stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 12.8%
Autodesk’s growth centers on platform adoption across architecture, engineering, construction, and manufacturing.
The company achieved strong performance in Q3, with underlying growth of 12% (excluding the impact of the new transaction model).
Construction and infrastructure showed particular strength, benefiting from data center buildouts and industrial projects. Management noted sustained momentum despite some softness in commercial construction.
The new transaction model contributed approximately $124 million to quarterly revenue. While this creates near-term accounting noise, it positions Autodesk for more predictable recurring revenue streams.
Management expects continued momentum for products such as Autodesk Construction Cloud and Fusion as customers embrace convergence.
2. Operating margins: 38.3%
Autodesk is expanding profitability while investing heavily in AI and cloud infrastructure.
The company delivered 38% non-GAAP operating margin in Q3, reflecting disciplined execution and operating leverage.
Management raised full-year margin guidance to 37.5%, or 40.5% excluding new transaction model impacts.
The path to the company’s long-term 41% margin target will be nonlinear due to incremental headwinds from the transition to the transaction model.
However, go-to-market optimization should reduce sales and marketing expenses as a percentage of revenue, while the platform approach enables efficiency through common components.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 20.1x
The market values Autodesk at 22.8x earnings. We assume the P/E will compress to 20.1x over our forecast period.
Near-term uncertainty around go-to-market changes and macro conditions warrants some multiple compression. The company is still executing its sales optimization plan, which carries execution risk despite strong progress to date.
However, as AI adoption accelerates and consumption-based revenue grows, Autodesk should command a premium multiple for its platform position. The company’s ability to monetize machine-based execution and workflow automation represents significant long-term upside.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Software companies face technology transitions and volatility in spending cycles. Here’s how Autodesk stock might perform under different scenarios through January 2030:
- Low Case: If revenue growth slows to 9.6% and net income margins compress to 29.3%, investors still see a 20% total return (4.7% annually).
- Mid Case: With 10.7% growth and 31.3% margins, we expect a total return of 51% (10.9% annually).
- High Case: If cloud adoption accelerates and Autodesk maintains 32.9% margins while growing at 11.8%, total returns could reach 86% (16.7% annually).
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The range reflects execution on platform migration, successful AI monetization, and margin expansion as the transaction model matures.
In the low case, go-to-market disruption emerges or construction spending moderates significantly.
In the high case, AI-powered productivity gains drive faster adoption, consumption revenue exceeds expectations, and the company achieves margin targets ahead of schedule.
How Much Upside Does Autodesk Stock Have From Here?
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All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
