Key Takeaways:
- Production Recovery: BCA delivered 600 commercial aircraft in 2025, the highest since 2018
- Price Projection: Based on current execution, BA stock could reach $412 by December 2028
- Potential Gains: This target implies a total return of 76% from the current price of $234
- Annual Return: Investors could see roughly 21% growth over the next 2.9 years
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Boeing (BA) just concluded its strongest delivery year since 2018. The company delivered 600 commercial aircraft and secured over 1,100 orders, building a record backlog of $567 billion.
CEO Kelly Ortberg’s turnaround plan is gaining traction as production stabilizes and quality metrics improve across the board.
The 737 MAX program hit its 42-per-month production target while the 787 stabilized at 8 aircraft monthly.
Boeing also completed the Spirit AeroSystems acquisition and successfully sold Jeppesen for $10.6 billion, strengthening its balance sheet.
Despite ongoing challenges with development programs and a recent KC-46 charge, Boeing stock trades at $234, offering meaningful upside for investors who recognize the company’s operational momentum.
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What the Model Says for Boeing Stock
We analyzed Boeing through its transformation back to operational stability and production discipline.
- The company is methodically increasing commercial production while reducing complexity in its factories.
- Management simplified over 5,100 work instruction documents, helping mechanics and inspectors perform consistently. The 737 program’s on-time delivery performance improved threefold compared to last year.
- Boeing’s defense business scored a transformational win with the U.S. Air Force’s sixth-generation fighter program.
- The Global Services division secured Boeing’s largest-ever commercial component services deal and achieved its highest defense orders in 2025.
Using a forecast of 10.8% annual revenue growth and 7.4% operating margins, our model projects the stock will rise to $412 within 2.9 years. This assumes a 102.2x price-to-earnings multiple.
That represents a significant expansion from Boeing’s historical P/E of 64.2x (ten years) but reflects the company’s improving fundamentals. The elevated multiple acknowledges Boeing’s position as one-half of a commercial aerospace duopoly with multi-decade growth visibility.
Our Valuation Assumptions
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Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for BA stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 10.8%
Boeing’s growth centers on production recovery and rate increases.
- The company plans to deliver around 500 737 MAX aircraft in 2026, up from 447 in 2025.
- The 787 program targets 90-100 deliveries, up from 88 last year.
- Management expects 737 production to reach 47 per month later this year, with plans to hit 52 per month as the supply chain harmonizes.
The defense business holds a record $85 billion backlog, including 15 KC-46 tankers and 96 Apache helicopters.
Boeing won 1,173 net commercial orders in 2025, with both the 737 and 787 sold on a firm basis into the next decade. Global Services posted record orders of $28 billion with a $30 billion backlog.
2. Operating margins: 7.4%
Boeing is rebuilding margins through operational discipline and production stability.
The 787 program reduced average rework hours by nearly 30% in 2025. The 737’s improved quality is generating positive customer feedback.
Defense achieved a 20% reduction in factory rework levels in Q4 compared to the first half.
Global Services is driving continuous improvement across its portfolio. The C-17 sustainment program achieved an 18% reduction in flow time through nearly 200 discrete projects. PAC-3 seeker production increased output by 33% through lean manufacturing and capacity investments.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 102.2x
The market has historically valued Boeing at 64.2x earnings. We assume the P/E will expand to 102.2x over our forecast period.
The commercial aerospace duopoly structure supports premium valuations. Boeing’s backlog provides multi-year revenue visibility.
The 777X program booked 202 orders in 2025 despite delayed certification, demonstrating customer confidence.
Near-term headwinds include development program costs and pressure on free cash flow from 777X inventory spending. However, management expects to reach $10 billion in annual free cash flow as production stabilizes and legacy charges burn off.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Aircraft manufacturers face execution risk in ramp-up production and development programs. Here’s how Boeing stock might perform under different scenarios through December 2030:
- Low Case: If revenue growth slows to 7.9% and margins compress to 2.9%, investors still see a 118% total return (17% annually).
- Mid Case: With 8.8% growth and 2.9% margins, we expect a total return of 159% (21% annually).
- High Case: If production accelerates and Boeing maintains 2.7% margins while growing at 9.7%, total returns could reach 194% (25% annually).
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The range reflects execution of rate increases, timing of development program certification, and improvement in free cash flow.
In the worst case, 737 or 787 production delays occur, or 777X certification slips further.
In the best case, all programs execute on schedule, supply chain performance enables the 52-per-month rate on 737, and Boeing successfully prices future tanker contracts profitably.
How Much Upside Does Boeing Stock Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
