Key Stats for DoorDash Stock
- Current Price: $196.50
- Target Price (Mid): ~$966
- Street Target: ~$258
- Potential Total Return: ~391%
- Annualized IRR: ~46% / year
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What Happened?
DoorDash (DASH) closed at $196.50 on October 9, down 13.2% in 2026, and its best recent number may be setting the wrong expectation. Second-quarter adjusted EBITDA reached $914 million, $44 million above the top of guidance, according to the company’s investor relations materials. On the August 5 call, CFO Ravi Inukonda explained why that gap opened and why he does not expect Q3 to repeat it.
The Q2 Beat Arrived Too Late to Spend
Inukonda said advertising and order-subtotal economics came in slightly ahead of plan in the second half of the quarter, while Deliveroo beat internal volume expectations. “There are going to be times, like in Q2, where the EBITDA beat comes in later in the quarter,” he said. “In those times, we just don’t have enough time to reinvest back in the business, especially at the levels of efficiency that we desire.”
On second-half margins, he said he expects DoorDash to land inside its Q3 guidance range of $950 million to $1.1 billion. The record backs that: in the four prior quarters, adjusted EBITDA landed inside guidance or no more than $5 million above the top. Yet consensus Q3 EBITDA on TIKR already sits around $1.03 billion, above the $1.025 billion midpoint.
Below EBITDA, Q2 was less clean. EBIT of $156 million missed the Street by 18.62% and fell from $163 million a year earlier, as EBIT margin slipped to 3.50% from 4.96%. GAAP EPS of $0.46 missed the $0.47 estimate. Management also expects EBITDA as a share of order value to dip in Q4 on seasonal Dasher costs, insurance, and tech and autonomy spending.
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Q4 Is When Deliveroo Stops Flattering Growth
Q2 revenue rose 36% year over year, but 24% excluding Deliveroo, per the company’s Q2 filing. That gap has an end date. DoorDash completed the Deliveroo acquisition on October 2, 2025, so Q4 is the first quarter measured against a base that already includes it. TIKR consensus has revenue growth falling from around 32% in Q3 to around 21% in Q4.
One lever sits in grocery. An analyst suggested some grocers pay DoorDash little or no take rate and asked about repricing. CEO Tony Xu declined to discuss specific partners but said DoorDash “might be 100% of the growth that they see in terms of their actual business.” That points to bargaining power, not a stated plan to reprice.
Rivals are moving. Uber (UBER) agreed on October 6 to buy catering marketplace ezCater for $2.3 billion in cash, a deal Reuters reported is expected to help narrow DoorDash’s U.S. lead. Uber’s $14.8 billion offer for Delivery Hero (DHER) is expected to close in the second half of 2027. On October 5, Deliveroo announced an exclusive UK robot-delivery partnership with Coco Robotics.
DoorDash trades at around 19x NTM EV/EBITDA, down from around 28x at the end of 2025. Delivery Hero trades near 13x, at €36.60 against Uber’s €41.50 offer. India’s Eternal (ETERNAL) trades near 72x. The Street’s mean target is $257.72.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $196.50
- Target Price (Mid): ~$966
- Potential Total Return: ~391%
- Annualized IRR: ~46% / year
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This analysis uses the mid case, measured from the $196.50 entry price. The TIKR model targets around $966 by December 31, 2030, a total return of roughly 391%, or about 46% a year.
That target equals about 57x consensus 2030 normalized EPS of around $17, against an NTM P/E of around 29x today. Reaching it would take earnings well ahead of consensus, through the levers management keeps naming: advertising, grocery unit economics, and Deliveroo’s international growth. If earnings only track consensus, the model’s path does not hold.
Conclusion
DoorDash reports Q3 results after the close on November 4. Inukonda described a company that reinvests upside when it has time to, so Q3 shows whether that spending buys volume. EBITDA near the $1.025 billion midpoint with Marketplace GOV toward the $34 billion top of guidance would fit his account. GOV near the $33 billion low end would send the stock into the Deliveroo anniversary quarter with neither an EBITDA beat nor faster volume to lean on.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
