Key Stats for Bloom Energy Stock
- Current Price: $280.50
- Target Price (Mid): ~$1,415
- Street Target: ~$285
- Potential Total Return: ~405%
- Annualized IRR: ~47% / year
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What Happened?
Bloom Energy’s (BE) best gross margin of 2026 leaned on a refund of import tariffs the company had already paid. Bloom’s investor relations materials show a 34.3% adjusted gross margin for Q2, up from 31.5% in Q1. Its 10-Q filing lists a $37.4 million recovery of previously paid import tariffs among the drivers. Without it, the adjusted margin was about 30.8%, slightly below Q1.
Shares closed at $280.50 on October 9, up 223% in 2026. That followed a $272.82 close on October 8, a day CoreWeave (CRWV) fell 7.77% as AI infrastructure stocks sold off. Wall Street’s estimates assume the margin keeps rising, and Q3 is the first quarter that has to show it without the refund.
Q2’s Margin Was About 30.8% Without the Tariff Refund
The refund stayed inside the adjusted figure. Bloom’s non-GAAP reconciliation removes only $9.7 million of stock-based compensation and $0.1 million of other items from Q2 gross profit. The underlying 30.8% still beat the 28.2% of a year earlier, but the step up from Q1 came from the refund.
Management held its full-year adjusted gross margin guidance at approximately 34%. At the $4.05 billion revenue midpoint, the second half needs around 35%, more than three points above the first half’s underlying 31.1%.
CFO Simon Edwards said on the July 28 call that speed can cost margin in a given quarter: “When we have to choose between protecting a point of margin in a given quarter and expediting to deliver an order quickly to a customer who is going to be with us for years, we are going to prioritize the customer and the long-term strategic value of that relationship.” He added: “Over a full year, that discipline is fully consistent with the margin rate we are guiding to.” The second half tests that promise.
Two customers made up about 44% and 21% of Q2 revenue, though Bloom counts the financier that buys its servers, not only the end user, as the customer. Edwards described this kind of concentration as delivery timing, not the makeup of the backlog.
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Estimates Already Assume the Margin Keeps Rising
TIKR consensus for 2026 revenue rose about 10% after Q2, to around $4.12 billion from around $3.74 billion on June 30. The stock closed 7% below its June 30 close of $302.70, so the NTM P/E ratio fell from about 130x to about 79x. NTM normalized EPS rose from around $2.33 to around $3.55, reflecting both higher estimates and a forward window rolling into stronger quarters.
Consensus gross margin is around 34% for 2026 and around 36% for 2027. Q3 consensus revenue of around $1.06 billion is flat with Q2’s $1,065.37 million, so any margin gain has to come from cost and mix rather than volume.
On October 7, UBS raised its target to $350 from $325 with a Buy rating, about 23% above the Street mean of $284.74. Bernstein reiterated Market Perform with a $282 target. The Street counts 10 Buy, 5 Outperform, 12 Hold, 1 Underperform, and 1 Sell ratings.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $280.50
- Target Price (Mid): ~$1,415
- Potential Total Return: ~405%
- Annualized IRR: ~47% / year
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The TIKR model’s mid case puts Bloom at around $1,415 by December 31, 2030, about 405% total return, or about 47% a year over 4.2 years. At that price, Bloom would trade at about 110x the Street’s 2030 normalized EPS estimate of $12.83, so the model needs earnings above consensus, a high multiple, or both.
Street consensus has 2030 revenue around $14.2 billion, up from $2,023.99 million in 2025, with EBITDA margin rising from 13.4% to around 35%. Consensus gross margin rises only about 8.5 points over that span, from 30.30% to around 39%, so most of the expected profit expansion comes from operating leverage. The model is a scenario built on these assumptions, not a forecast.
A Q3 gross margin stall would dent that path, but operating expenses growing far slower than revenue carry more of it.
Conclusion
Bloom had not announced its Q3 report date as of October 11. Third-party calendars place it between October 27 and early November. An adjusted gross margin near 35% would show the full-year guide works without the refund. A result near Q2’s underlying 30.8% would put both the guide and the 2027 margin estimates in question.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
