Key Stats for Upstart Stock
- Current Price: $24.10
- Target Price (Mid): ~$99
- Street Target: ~$40
- Potential Total Return: ~312%
- Annualized IRR: ~40% / year
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What Happened?
Upstart Holdings (UPST) reported preliminary third-quarter originations of $4,117.8 million on October 5, 2026. That was up from roughly $2.9 billion a year earlier but 2.6% below the second quarter’s $4,227.2 million in total dollars. Rates have also turned: the Fed raised its benchmark in September for the first time in three years.
Results arrive before the open on November 3, according to Upstart’s investor relations materials. Shares closed at $24.10 on October 9, down 44.89% from $43.73 at the end of 2025, with most of that decline coming by March 31.
Flat Revenue Leaves a $22.8 Million Profit Gap
Upstart reaffirmed about $294 million in 2026 adjusted EBITDA on August 4. First-half EBITDA was $117.37 million. Against two repeats of Q2’s $76.91 million, the second half needs about $22.8 million more.
Street estimates on TIKR cover it: $83.17 million for Q3 and $93.86 million for Q4. But those estimates also assume Q3 revenue of $365.10 million, flat with Q2’s $364.71 million, and then a 4.88% step up to $382.92 million in Q4.
Part of the gap is the auto and other segments, home to Upstart’s secured loans. They lost $7.637 million at the contribution line in Q2, so each quarter at breakeven would cover about a third of it.
Paul Gu, Upstart’s Co-Founder and CEO, has also narrowed the product list. He paused auto refinancing because it “wasn’t as high potential, high growth, high momentum as some of our other product sets.” Fewer bets means fewer loss-making products for the core personal loan business to fund. The bank charter works against the step-up this year; Gu called it “a cost center with no benefit in 2026.”
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The Company Is Buying Back Stock. Its Executives Are Split
Upstart repurchased $100.06 million of stock in the first half, per its Q2 filing. Gu bought 50,000 shares on September 10 at a weighted average of $25.55, according to an SEC Form 4.
Other executives sold in August and September, including President Sanjay Datta’s 116,000 shares for about $3.2 million, per Form 4 data compiled by Earnings Whispers. Insider sales can reflect taxes or diversification, and a single purchase is not a forecast.
Analysts have moved down more slowly. TIKR shows the mean target at $40.00 on October 9, 2026, against $80.85 on September 30, 2025.
The bank remains a 2027 question. Upstart holds conditional OCC approval, but FDIC deposit insurance and Federal Reserve approval are still pending. If all approvals arrive, Gu said Upstart has “about $1 billion of loans on our balance sheet. Most of that is not levered,” and called levering them “quite equity efficient.”
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $24.10
- Target Price (Mid): ~$99
- Potential Total Return: ~312%
- Annualized IRR: ~40% / year
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TIKR’s mid case reaches around $99 by December 31, 2030, about 312% above $24.10, or around 40% a year over 4.2 years. Its revenue assumption is not the stretch. The model’s mid case assumes a revenue CAGR of around 21%, in line with the Street’s 2025-to-2030 CAGR of around 21% on TIKR, although the 2029 and 2030 estimates rest on a single analyst.
The stretch is profitability: the model assumes a net margin of about 33%, against about 25% in the Street’s 2030 estimate. The primary risk is volume. Q4 estimates need revenue to grow after a flat Q3, while Upstart’s macro index sat at 1.49 on October 5, about 49% above its normal-economy level. Even the low case assumes about 19% revenue growth, so the realistic downside is time: a missed second half that delays the margin ramp.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
