Key Stats for Axon Enterprise Stock
- Current Price: $422.89
- Target Price (Mid): ~$1,340
- Street Target: ~$697
- Potential Total Return: ~216%
- Annualized IRR: ~31% / year
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What Happened?
For its CFO’s forecast to hold, Axon Enterprise (AXON) needs Q4 2026 revenue of about $1.078 billion. Analysts model around $1.06 billion. At a Goldman Sachs conference on September 8, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer Brittany Bagley said Q4 should be the “highest growth quarter for the year.” That means beating the 35.28% growth Axon reported for Q2 in its investor relations materials.
Shares closed at $422.89 on October 9, down from $717.64 on September 30, 2025. That stretch included a 14.28% one-day drop after Q2 results and a $1 billion convertible note offering announced September 15. Over the same period, the consensus FY2027 revenue estimate rose about 14%. The analyst count also grew from 11 to 19, and Axon spent $549.7 million on acquisitions in Q1 2026.
Axon’s Guidance Math Puts the Pressure on Q3
Bagley said the year “tends to be more heavily weighted to Q4 than to Q3.” 2025 fit that shape, with Q4 2025 revenue up 39% after a little over 30% in Q3. If Q3 2026 lands at the roughly $940 million consensus, the top of the 32% to 34% full-year range implies Q4 revenue of about $1.073 billion. That is around 34.7% growth, just short of Q2’s pace.
That leaves two paths for Bagley to be right. Axon beats its own range, or Q3 comes in below consensus and Q4 carries more of the year. The second path carries risk, because a Q3 under $940 million could read as a miss even with the full-year plan intact.
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Bookings and New Corrections Customers Back the Q4 Call
Five-year normalized bookings grew more than 30% in Q2. Gross bookings rose 20%, against a prior-year period that had grown 50%. Bagley put Axon at about 15% penetration of its state and local market. She also said Axon accounts for 1% to 5% of a police department’s budget, depending on the department.
Recent wins are steady but small on their own. On October 8, Axon named four state corrections agencies, including New York and Maryland, that are expanding body camera, TASER and AI deployments. It disclosed no contract values. On October 5, Lakeland, Florida’s city commission voted 7-0 for a ten-year, roughly $22 million agreement that replaces its 2021 Axon contract and adds drones. Bagley’s Q4 case rests on year-end approvals, which she called “a real impetus for our customers to get through City Council.”
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $422.89
- Target Price (Mid): ~$1,340
- Potential Total Return: ~216%
- Annualized IRR: ~31% / year
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The TIKR mid case targets about $1,340 per share by December 31, 2030, roughly 216% above $422.89. Its mid-case assumptions call for annual revenue growth around 23%, a net income margin near 19%, and a P/E that shrinks about 6% a year. That means the return does not rely on a re-rating. The Street’s mean target of ~$697 sits about 65% above the current price.
Bagley said Axon will review 2027 pricing “in the next couple of months,” which affects the model’s later years, not Q4. The main risk is timing, since council delays can push revenue into 2027. On the upside, a Q4 above Q2’s pace would make ~23% growth look conservative. On the downside, growth slowing toward the low case’s ~21% while the multiple keeps falling would cut the return well below the mid case.
Conclusion
IACP, October 24 to 27, comes first. Bagley said it is “usually where Rick likes to talk about some of the cool new things,” referring to founder and CEO Rick Smith. Axon reported Q3 2025 on November 4, 2025. As of October 11, it had not announced a 2026 date. Q3 revenue below $940 million with full-year guidance reaffirmed would fit Bagley’s plan, and Q4 revenue above $1.078 billion would confirm it.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
