Key Stats for Domino’s Pizza Stock
- Current Price: $311.60
- Target Price (Mid): ~$485
- Street Target: ~$381
- Potential Total Return: ~56%
- Annualized IRR: ~11% / year
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What Happened?
Domino’s Pizza, Inc. (DPZ) closed at $311.60 on September 11, near its 52-week low of $282 and down about a third from last year’s high of $455.72 on a closing basis. For most of 2026, the falling price made the stock look more tempting. That pull weakened this quarter. TIKR’s mid-case model now values Domino’s at roughly $485, down from a higher read in late August, so the model’s target has been sliding with the tape rather than anchoring above it.
A cheaper stock against a firm target is an opportunity. A cheaper stock against a target that keeps getting marked down is a business whose estimates are still falling.
The Model Trimmed the Number
TIKR’s late-August mid-case put Domino’s near $535. Today’s read stands at $484.50, realized on a 2030 horizon, roughly $50 lower even though the stock is cheaper. That is the tell: the target is no longer holding above a falling price. The driver is the forward revenue path. The mid case now compounds sales at roughly 3% a year, near the low end of Domino’s own history, because store growth is the input under the most pressure.
Domino’s trimmed its U.S. net store outlook to about 175 units from a prior 175-plus, tying the cut to franchisee profitability after a weak-ticket quarter. When JPMorgan’s analyst floated whether Domino’s should rethink or consolidate its U.S. map to protect per-store economics, outgoing CEO Russell Weiner pushed back flatly: “I’m not sure I agree with the thesis that we should be remapping our stores.” His logic was that orders, not fewer locations, fund expansion: “more orders, that’s key to future store growth.”
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Why the Cheapness Is Real Anyway
Domino’s trades at 15.4x forward earnings, down from 25.4x fifteen months ago, and 13.4x NTM EV/EBITDA against 19.4x over the same stretch. The de-rating came from the multiple: EBITDA still grew, and the LTM EBIT margin holds at 19.3%.
Against peers, Domino’s 13.4x forward EV/EBITDA roughly matches Restaurant Brands at 13.1x and sits far below Chipotle at 20.3x and Starbucks at 20.8x, per TIKR’s Competitors page. For a franchisor with margins this high and a supply-chain arm that peers can’t copy, pricing in line with QSR’s cheaper names looks like the market lumping it with the category. There is real cash behind the discount: Q2 free cash flow of $166.68 million beat the Street estimate by 213%, and the carryout channel stays underpenetrated. CFO Sandeep Reddy noted carryout “is about 80% incremental” while Domino’s holds “just about 20%” share there, a lane with room the model hasn’t fully credited.
The offsetting risk is that cheap has stayed cheap all year. The Street’s mean target has slid to $381, the lowest in more than a year, with analysts now split 13 buys, 2 outperforms, 14 holds, 1 underperform, and 1 sell. Targets have fallen with the price for twelve months. Until unit growth or ticket turns, both the model and the Street keep marking the number down, and the discount stays a fair price rather than a mispricing.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $311.60
- Target Price (Mid): ~$485
- Potential Total Return: ~56%
- Annualized IRR: ~11% / year
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Domino’s Pizza stock (It’s free!) >>>
The case rests on two revenue drivers: continued global net store growth, with almost 1,000 stores added over the trailing twelve months, and rising aggregator share, where Domino’s now claims the top spot on both Uber and DoorDash with room to its “fair share.” The margin driver is net income margin holding near 13%, supported by the supply-chain business and disciplined pricing.
The upside is that ticket normalizes as the Premium Series lap rolls off, order momentum restores mid-single-digit retail sales growth, and the multiple re-rates from a trough. The primary risk is the store-growth engine, not demand: if franchisee economics don’t recover, the revenue assumption that carries the $485 breaks, and the next model revision cuts again.
Conclusion
Q3 results, expected around October 14 and landing shortly after Joe Jordan becomes CEO in October, are where management’s claim that the store pipeline recovers gets its first test. A move back toward net additions in line with the roughly 175-store full-year guide, driven by firmer franchisee profitability, would validate the mid-case and likely stop the target cuts. Another trim to the store outlook would confirm the model’s caution and point the next revision lower.
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Should You Invest in Domino’s Pizza?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Domino’s Pizza, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Domino’s Pizza alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
