Key Stats for Costco Stock
- Current Price: $942.25
- Target Price (Mid): ~$1,450
- Street Target: ~$1,058
- Potential Total Return: ~54%
- Annualized IRR: ~9% / year
Now Live: Discover how much upside your favorite stocks could have using TIKR’s new Valuation Model (It’s free) >>>
What Happened?
Costco Wholesale (COST) faced a pointed question on its fiscal Q4 call on September 24. UBS analyst Michael Lasser said that, by his estimate, about $100 million of tariff refunds put into lower prices had not yet changed the monthly sales trend. CFO Gary Millerchip answered that comparable sales excluding gas and currency had held in a 6% to 7% range for about a year.
The September sales release on October 7 was the first monthly data since that exchange. Comparable traffic rose 4.7% worldwide in the five weeks ended October 4, against 3.3% in the 16-week fourth quarter. Net sales rose 13.0% to $30.02 billion, according to Costco’s investor relations materials. Shares had closed at $942.25 before the release came out after hours.
See historical and forward estimates for Costco stock (It’s free!) >>>
Excluding Gas, More Trips Did the Work
Comparable sales rose 11.4%, or 7.6% excluding gas prices and currency. That is above both Millerchip’s range and the 6.7% adjusted pace of the fourth quarter. A later Labor Day added a little more than half a point to total comparable sales, so part of the gain comes from the calendar.
Within September, traffic grew faster than spending per trip. The average ticket excluding gas and currency rose 2.8%, against 4.7% traffic growth. Nonfoods grew at a high single-digit rate, led by gift cards, housewares, and sporting goods, according to Andrew Yoon, AVP of Finance and Investor Relations.
Gas runs underneath both trends. The average price per gallon rose 32.8%, adding about 3.8 points to reported comparable sales, and comparable gallons grew at a high single-digit rate. On the Q4 call, Millerchip said that as members buy more gas, “we tend to find they visit more frequently.” September fits that pattern, though one five-week month with holiday help does not prove it. Gas also weighs on the margin rate: reported Q4 gross margin slipped 11 basis points to 11.02%, but rose 20 basis points excluding gas inflation.
Slower Member Growth Puts the Weight on Visits
Truist analyst Scot Ciccarelli said on the Q4 call that membership growth had slowed for eight quarters in a row. Millerchip said the recent pace is probably more typical. With the member base growing more slowly, sales gains depend more on how often existing members shop.
The valuation already reflects some doubt. Costco trades at about 41 times NTM normalized earnings, down from about 49 times at the end of August 2025. The Street mean target of about $1,058 sits roughly 12% above the price, down from about $1,077 at the August 30 fiscal year-end. Ratings stand at 20 Buy, 4 Outperform, 13 Hold, 1 Underperform, and 1 Sell.
See how Costco performs against its peers in TIKR (It’s free!) >>>
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $942.25
- Target Price (Mid): ~$1,450
- Potential Total Return: ~54%
- Annualized IRR: ~9% / year
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Costco stock (It’s free!) >>>
The TIKR mid case targets around $1,450 by August 31, 2031, about 54% above $942.25, or roughly 9% a year. This article uses the mid case as the central scenario.
Consensus offers a cross-check. TIKR analyst estimates have total revenue rising from $303.15 billion in fiscal 2026 to about $434 billion in fiscal 2031, around 7% a year. Normalized net margin edges from 3.0% to about 3.3%, and EPS on a GAAP basis climbs from $20.76 to about $33, around 9.5% a year. If those estimates hold, a return near 9% a year needs the P/E to stay close to today’s level.
For the upside to play out, estimates need to rise. The fiscal 2027 revenue consensus of about $328 billion was essentially unchanged on October 8 from September 30. The downside risk is another multiple reset like the one since August 2025, which could absorb most of the earnings gain. The target is a scenario, not a forecast.
Conclusion
The next test is October sales, covering the four weeks ended November 1. With no holiday shift helping, two readings would confirm September as a turn: traffic above Q4’s 3.3% and adjusted comparable sales above Millerchip’s 6% to 7% range. A return toward August’s 5.4% would put the 41 times multiple back under pressure.
See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money with TIKR.
So what is Costco stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Costco could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
