Key Stats for Snowflake Stock
- Current Price: $332.85
- Target Price (Mid): ~$877
- Street Target: ~$425
- Potential Total Return: ~164%
- Annualized IRR: ~25% / year
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What Happened?
On October 6, 2026, a push notification went to ASOS (ASC) app users. It was addressed to the retailer’s data protection officer and IT team and claimed the sender had compromised “the Snowflake instance.” It warned: “Engage with us, or we will leak it.” ASOS confirmed unauthorized activity on third-party platforms it uses to message customers, but it has not confirmed the Snowflake claim. Snowflake (SNOW) said it has “found no compromise” of its platform after launching an investigation.
Snowflake shares closed October 7 at $332.85. They fell 0.92% that day, when the broader market fell from record highs. The stock’s next real test is the guidance in its next report, measured against the targets in its investor relations materials.
What Snowflake’s Statement Covers, and What It Doesn’t
ASOS said names and contact details may have been accessed, but it does not believe payment card information or passwords were affected. Its shares fell more than 10% in morning trading on October 6. Rob Demain, chief executive of e2e-assure, told ITV it was unclear whether the claimed Snowflake hack was real “because we only have the attacker’s word for it.”
Snowflake’s statement addresses its own platform, and the 2024 campaign shows why that distinction matters. In that campaign, attackers used stolen credentials against customer accounts that lacked two-factor authentication, and Mandiant notified 165 potentially exposed organizations. Snowflake, Mandiant and CrowdStrike found no evidence that Snowflake’s own platform was breached. A compromised customer account at ASOS would fit that pattern without contradicting Snowflake’s statement. Nothing confirms one.
CFO Brian Robins said on September 15 that “we’ve got the majority of our contracts in fourth quarter,” the quarter that starts November 1. He also called renewals “just a normal event for us.” Net revenue retention was 126% in the July quarter. That metric compares spending by existing customers with a year earlier.
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Guidance Has Moved the Stock More Than the Beat
TIKR’s beats-and-misses data shows Snowflake topped revenue consensus in each of the past five quarters, by 2.31% to 5.29%. One-day moves still ranged from an 11.41% drop to a 36.48% gain. The drop came after the December 3, 2025, report. Revenue beat by 2.44% that quarter, but fourth-quarter product revenue guidance disappointed investors.
Current guidance calls for $6.07 billion of fiscal 2027 product revenue, up 36%. That includes $1.588 billion to $1.593 billion in the October quarter. First-half product revenue was $2.83 billion, so the guidance implies about $1.65 billion for the January quarter.
Expectations are high. Shares trade at around 132 times next-twelve-months normalized earnings, and Snowflake posted a GAAP loss of $0.55 per share in the July quarter. Of 53 analyst ratings, 36 are Buy, 9 Outperform, 6 Hold, 1 No Opinion, and 1 Sell. The mean target is around $425, about 28% above the October 7 close.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $332.85
- Target Price (Mid): ~$877
- Potential Total Return: ~164%
- Annualized IRR: ~25% / year
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The mid-case is a scenario, not a forecast. Over the forecast period, it assumes around 22% annual revenue growth and a net income margin near 16%. The main risk is consumption. If customers slow usage over security doubts or trim spending at renewal, revenue growth takes the hit directly. The high case assumes around 24% growth and 17% margins. The low case assumes around 20% growth and 15% margins.
Conclusion
Snowflake next reports on the quarter ending October 31. Last year’s equivalent report came on December 3. A January-quarter product revenue guide at or above the roughly $1.65 billion implied by current guidance would suggest demand is holding through the ASOS episode. A lower guide would echo December 2025. Confirmation that a Snowflake account was involved at ASOS would raise a second question.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
