Key Stats for Micron Stock
- Current Price: $1,088.00
- Target Price (Mid): ~$1,516
- Street Target: ~$1,555
- Potential Total Return: ~39%
- Annualized IRR: ~7% / year
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What Happened?
Micron Technology (MU) grew NAND faster than DRAM in fiscal Q4 2026. According to the company’s investor relations materials, NAND revenue hit a record $14.1 billion, up 526% from a year earlier, against 343% growth for DRAM. NAND is still the smaller business at 26% of revenue, and most of its latest sequential gain came from price, not volume.
The union at Micron’s Taoyuan plant in Taiwan said on October 7 it had won strike authorization. Shares still closed up 4.06% at $1,088.00 that day, with no single catalyst identified for the gain. The TIKR model’s mid case puts the stock around $1,516 by August 31, 2031, roughly 7% a year.
Data Center SSDs Became Two-Thirds of Micron’s NAND
Data center SSD revenue reached nearly $10 billion in fiscal Q4, more than 10 times the year-ago quarter and over two-thirds of NAND revenue. Chairman and CEO Sanjay Mehrotra tied the jump to AI workloads: “In NAND, AI context memory storage used for KV cache offload and HDD displacement opportunities are expanding the addressable market for SSDs.” KV cache is the working memory an AI model builds while answering a prompt, so moving it onto SSDs makes storage part of how AI models serve users.
CFO Mark Murphy said NAND bit shipments rose about 10% from fiscal Q3, while “Prices increased approximately 30%, driven by tight NAND industry conditions.” With Micron’s own NAND supply expected to grow less than the industry’s in calendar 2026, most of the 42% sequential revenue jump came from price. That 30% gain is the most exposed number in the quarter, because it is the part that reverses if supply catches up.
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Analysts Already Pencil In a Fiscal 2030 Earnings Drop
Consensus has Micron’s normalized EPS near $206 in fiscal 2028 and around $139 in fiscal 2030, a drop of roughly a third. Those later years rest on thin coverage: TIKR shows five analysts on fiscal 2030 revenue and one on fiscal 2031, where EPS falls to around $69. At $1,088.00, the stock trades under 8x the fiscal 2030 estimate and around 16x the fiscal 2031 one.
Memory makers trade far below other chip stocks on TIKR: Micron sits near 5x NTM EV/EBITDA, against near 3x for SK hynix (000660) and flash maker Kioxia (285A), and around 25x for ASML (ASML) and Intel (INTC).
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $1,088.00
- Target Price (Mid): ~$1,516
- Potential Total Return: ~39%
- Annualized IRR: ~7% / year
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The model’s 2031 summary shows only the mid case, so that is the case used here. A roughly 39% total return from $1,088.00 works out to about 7% a year, and the Street’s ~$1,555 mean target already sits above that 2031 figure.
Over its full forecast window through fiscal 2036, the mid case assumes revenue growth around 12% a year and net income margins around 61%, well above the roughly 37% margin in the single fiscal 2031 estimate. The main risk is pricing once Micron’s Singapore NAND fab begins output, slated for the second half of calendar 2028. If supply stays tight through 2028 as management expects, the fiscal 2030 fade looks too harsh. If the fiscal 2031 estimate of around $69 proves right, the mid case looks generous.
Conclusion
Micron’s next report covers the quarter ending in late November. If NAND bit growth outpaces NAND revenue growth, prices fell, and the 526% starts to look cyclical. If prices keep rising faster than bits, the fiscal 2030 estimates have room to move up.
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So what is Micron stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
