Key Takeaways
- Circle Internet Group shares fell 7% today after Mizuho trimmed its price target to $43 from $45 and kept its Underperform rating.
- The AI-agent warning moved Mizuho’s target by just $2. Most of its bearish case dates to its July downgrade.
- Mizuho thinks AI assistants could cost Circle 10% to 20% of its reserve revenue, which it already shares heavily with Coinbase.
- Third-quarter results on Nov. 4 will show USDC balances and reserve yields through September, before October’s dip.
Circle Internet Group (CRCL) stock fell 7% today after Mizuho kept its Underperform rating and trimmed its price target to $43 from $45, warning that AI personal-assistant engines pose a “marked risk” to Circle’s revenue. That target sits about 50% below Friday’s $85.91 close.
The new warning itself was small. It moved Mizuho’s target by $2 and its 2027 EBITDA estimate by about 5%.
The agents don’t pick USDC
Mizuho asked AI agents like Muse where to hold cash. They steered users out of USDC toward higher-yielding, FDIC-insured alternatives, and pointed crypto holders to platforms other than Circle.
That hits a company that earned 95.2% of its second-quarter revenue from interest on USDC’s reserves. Mizuho sees $4 billion to $9 billion of medium-term downside to USDC in circulation, and 10% to 20% to reserve revenue.
Circle’s own data points the other way: USDC made up 99.3% of x402 settlement volume as of July 2026. But that shows agents paying in USDC, not holding cash in it, and Circle earns its money on balances that sit still.
Coinbase shares the bill
Coinbase (COIN), which received about $1.4 billion of Circle’s $2.6 billion of reserve income in 2025, fell 5% on the same day. Whatever pulls balances out of USDC cuts into its revenue too.
TIKR Tracks 29 Analysts on Circle Internet Group. How Many Say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Circle Internet Group, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Circle Internet Group’s Analyst Ratings
$43 needs the Street to be badly wrong
Analysts still expect revenue to climb from $2.75 billion in 2025 to $4.74 billion in 2028.
Mizuho’s July downgrade had already put its 2027 EBITDA estimate about 25% under consensus, before this week’s trim.
Circle traded at 66x forward earnings at Friday’s close, about 62x after today’s drop, against a one-year average of 75x and an August low of 45x. On consensus estimates, $43 works out to about 33x.
What Circle’s November 4 Report Has to Show
Mizuho’s note added a new risk, but it changed Mizuho’s own numbers only at the margin. The question that matters for Circle stock is the one Mizuho has pressed since July: whether USDC balances keep growing. A day’s selling can’t answer that, and the next set of results will provide another test.
The stronger bear point is in USDC’s own numbers. Circulation was about $73 billion on October 8, below the $73.3 billion reported for June 30. The November 4 results cover the third quarter, before most of that drift, so management’s comments on October balances will matter as much as the reported reserve income.
So what is Circle stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
