Key Takeaways
- CareDx shares jumped 20% after third-quarter revenue rose 39% to $139 million and the company raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $520 million to $530 million.
- About $15 million of the quarter’s revenue came from tests run in earlier periods, so the raised guidance tells you more about the business than the beat does.
- Adjusted EBITDA doubled to $30 million, nearly matching CareDx’s total for all of 2025.
- Natera, CareDx’s rival in kidney transplant testing, reports next week, and its results will show whether that market is growing for both companies or CareDx is taking share.
CareDx (CDNA) shares soared 20% today after third-quarter revenue rose 39% to $139 million, far above the roughly $122 million analysts expected. Management also raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $520 million to $530 million, from $490 million to $500 million.
CEO John Hanna said on Thursday’s call that kidney testing “continued to grow well over 20% year over year.” That raises a question for Natera (NTRA), whose Prospera test competes with CareDx’s AlloSure in kidney transplant monitoring.
The raise matters more than the beat
Not all of the quarter will repeat. Testing Services revenue included $15 million from tests run in earlier periods, against $6 million a year ago. Without it, CareDx says Testing Services grew about 58%.
But the guidance midpoint rose $30 million, twice that catch-up. Going into the report, analysts expected about $495 million for 2026, as their estimates show:
With the new midpoint about 6% above that, I’d expect the estimates for 2027 and 2028 to rise too.
Profits are catching up
Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA doubled to $30 million, nearly matching CareDx’s $32 million for all of 2025. The full-year guide rose to $90 million to $100 million, from $66 million to $78 million.
Cash is the one soft spot: cash from operations was $13 million, down from $37 million a year ago.
TIKR tracks 7 analysts on CareDx. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on CareDx, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See CareDx’s Analyst Ratings
Natera reports next week
Natera grew revenue 38% to $752.8 million in the second quarter, but its release didn’t break out organ health. If Prospera keeps pace with CareDx’s kidney growth, transplant monitoring is growing fast enough for both. If it doesn’t, CareDx is taking share.
Canaccord raised its target to $99 from $80 and BTIG to $92 from $81, and both kept Buy ratings.
My take: The guidance raise shows this quarter is more than catch-up revenue. But after the jump, the stock needs AlloHeme’s launch, planned for the first quarter of 2027, to go well, so I’d rather buy on a pullback.
So what is CareDx stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what CareDx could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
