Key Takeaways
- Boot Barn shares jumped 15% after fiscal Q2 sales rose 15% and earnings per share rose 26%.
- Same-store sales grew just 1.4%, but with the stock down 30% this year, less-bad results were enough.
- Boot Barn raised this fiscal year’s new store plan to 75-80 from 70.
- Crocs and Tractor Supply also reported a cautious U.S. shopper, so the holiday quarter is the one to watch.
Boot Barn (BOOT) rose 15% after fiscal Q2 results that Craig-Hallum analyst Jeremy Hamblin called “better than feared.”
But Crocs (CROX) and Tractor Supply (TSCO) just reported the same cautious U.S. shopper that held back Boot Barn’s same-store sales.
Better than feared is a low bar
The quarter to Sept. 26 was solid:
- Sales rose 15.1% to $581.8 million, mostly from new stores.
- Same-store sales rose 1.4%, against 8.4% a year earlier.
- EPS rose 26% to $1.73, $0.08 above the top of its guidance.
But same-store sales rose just 0.4% in October, and guidance for the quarter to Dec. 26 runs up to 1% growth.
CEO John Hazen said on the call he’s “not satisfied with October’s comp sales performance.”
Still, a stock down 30% this year had already priced in plenty of bad news. Boot Barn traded at 14.5x forward earnings at Thursday’s close, against a five-year average of 19x:
Boot Barn has company
The Crocs brand’s North America revenue fell 2% in the quarter to Sept. 30, while international grew 12%. Crocs still raised its full-year guidance and surged 25%.
Tractor Supply’s comparable sales rose just 0.4% in its quarter to Sept. 26, with transactions down 0.3%, though they improved each month from a negative July.
So Boot Barn’s slowdown looks like part of a wider pullback by U.S. shoppers. The question is whether Tractor Supply’s September pickup holds into the holidays.
TIKR tracks 17 analysts on Boot Barn. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Boot Barn, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Boot Barn’s Analyst Ratings
New stores are doing the heavy lifting
Boot Barn now plans 75-80 openings this fiscal year, up from 70, toward a long-term goal of 1,200 U.S. stores, from 584 at quarter end. Each new store targets about $3.2 million of first-year sales and a 53% cash-on-cash return in year one.
Management expects full-year EPS up 15-20%, excluding an estimated $0.45 from tariff refunds.
My take: The new stores are working, and the stock still prices in plenty of doubt. I think there’s more room to run.
Of course, the holiday quarter will decide it, and guidance allows same-store sales to shrink.
So what is Boot Barn stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
