Key Takeaways
- AST SpaceMobile stock rose 14% in the past week, mostly on a Japanese satellite venture with Rakuten backed by about $1 billion of government funding.
- It also plans its own rocket on Firefly Aerospace engines to rely less on SpaceX from late 2028, but its third-quarter revenue missed.
- The stock trades far below its usual forward sales multiple, but a SpaceX launch date for its next three satellites comes first.
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) rose 14% from the Nov. 5 close to Nov. 12, mostly on Nov. 9, when it and Rakuten announced a Japanese satellite venture backed by about $1 billion of government money.
Three days earlier, AST said it will build its own rocket on Firefly Aerospace (FLY) engines, to rely less on SpaceX (SPCX), its launcher and a would-be rival in phone service.
Japan’s money, and a rocket of its own
Rakuten AST is set to receive up to 148 billion yen (about $1 billion) from Japan’s communications ministry over about three years. AST says that money needs no new shares. That matters for a company that burned about $1.8 billion of free cash flow over the last four quarters, against about $3.2 billion of cash, including restricted cash.
Blacklift, a reusable rocket due from late 2028, comes with a Firefly deal worth more than $1.3 billion that includes about $900 million of cash and 10 million to 14 million new AST shares. “The Blacklift rocket is the springboard to significantly expand our total addressable market,” founder and CEO Abel Avellan said. For Firefly, the $250 million engine order alone is more than half its 2026 revenue guide.
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A miss, and another slip
AST’s third-quarter report that evening showed launches are still the bottleneck. Revenue of $42.3 million missed the $46 million analysts expected, and AST pushed its goal of about 45 satellites in orbit to mid-2027, from early 2027. Shares fell nearly 9% the next day, and BofA cut its price target to $45 from $80. AST’s next three satellites, BlueBirds 14 to 16, are still waiting on a launch date from SpaceX, whose shares rose 13% over the same week.
Analysts still expect revenue to more than triple, from about $166 million this year to $580 million in 2027:
That 2027 estimate was $748 million at the end of June and $609 million just before the report. With the satellite goal moving again, more cuts look likely.
Cheap on history, but wait for a launch date
AST trades at about 26x forward sales, far below its five-year average of 60x:
Japan’s $1 billion is the right kind of money. But a SpaceX date for BlueBirds 14 to 16 is the signal worth waiting for before buying, since each slip pushes service revenue further out while the cash keeps going. If AST’s intermittent U.S. service starts by year-end as planned, that wait may not be long.
So what is AST SpaceMobile stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
