Key Takeaways
- AST SpaceMobile stock jumped 16% after it and Rakuten Group formed a government-funded satellite venture in Japan.
- The deal gives AST a government-backed customer in a country whose three biggest carriers use Starlink.
- Engine supplier Firefly Aerospace and Rocket Lab also rose.
- AST’s third-quarter report tonight has to show what Blacklift does to its cash plan.
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) stock is up 16% today after it and Rakuten Group (TSE:4755) formed Rakuten AST, a joint venture to build a direct-to-smartphone satellite network in Japan.
Firefly Aerospace (FLY), which will supply engines for AST’s rocket, is up 14%, and Rocket Lab (RKLB), which also reports tonight, is up 12% on a strong day for tech stocks.
Japan is paying for a network of its own
Rakuten holds 51% of the venture’s voting rights and an AST subsidiary the other 49%. Backed by up to 148 billion yen (about $1 billion) from Japan’s communications ministry, it’s targeting service by the end of March 2029.
Mickey Mikitani, Rakuten Group’s chairman and CEO, called it “a key pillar of Rakuten Mobile’s network strategy.”
That’s a big win, since KDDI, NTT Docomo and SoftBank, Japan’s three biggest carriers, all sell Starlink’s direct-to-phone service.
Analysts expect AST’s revenue to climb from $70.9 million in 2025 to $1.73 billion in 2028.
Rakuten AST’s service isn’t due until 2029, though, so I wouldn’t expect today’s deal to move these estimates much.
TIKR tracks 13 analysts on AST SpaceMobile. How many say “Buy”?
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Tonight has to price the rocket
On Friday, AST said it will build its own reusable rocket, Blacklift. It will pay Firefly about $800 million upfront to license its engines: $400 million in cash and 10 million to 14 million new shares, plus $250 million for engines and $250 million over three years for engineering support. That’s more dilution for a diluted share count that has more than doubled in two years, to 299 million.
For Firefly, the $250 million engine order is more than half its 2026 revenue guidance of $420 million to $450 million. It reports this week, and the test is whether the AST deal shows up in its backlog and guidance.
Rocket Lab posted record second-quarter revenue of $234 million, up 62%, and tonight investors want to hear that its bigger Neutron rocket is still on track to fly in 2027.
AST’s forward price-to-sales multiple was 31x at Friday’s close, about half its five-year average of 60x.
At today’s price, it’s even higher.
Rakuten AST is the kind of deal AST needs: government money and a committed customer. But tonight’s Blacklift bill and launch dates matter more to me, ahead of Thursday’s rocket unveiling.
So what is AST SpaceMobile stock actually worth?
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