Key Takeaways
- On Nov. 9, H.C. Wainwright repeated its Buy rating and $90 price target on Oklo. That’s 245% above the share price after a 77% drop over the past year.
- The firm has kept $90 for more than a year. Over that time the average analyst target fell to $63 from $104, and three firms cut their targets the same morning.
- At Sept. 30, Oklo had $3.1 billion of cash and securities. That’s about half the free cash flow analysts expect it to burn from 2026 through 2030, and Meta’s Ohio campus still has no binding power contract.
- The $90 looks too optimistic while Oklo keeps paying for its build by selling stock at falling prices.
Oklo (OKLO) has lost 77% over the past year, and one Wall Street firm hasn’t budged. On Monday, H.C. Wainwright’s Sameer Joshi repeated his Buy rating and $90 price target. That’s 245% above where the stock trades today.
Selling stock all the way down
Oklo pays for its reactors with shareholders’ money, and the price it gets for new shares keeps falling. It sold stock at an average of $96.95 a share in January and $63.51 in the second quarter. In the first three quarters of 2026 it raised $2.3 billion this way, and its share count rose 34% from the end of 2024 to June 30.
Then Democrats were projected to win both the House and the Senate in the Nov. 3 elections, and that rattled AI power stocks. Most of Oklo’s roughly 14-gigawatt pipeline is data centers.
Wainwright’s $90 has held for a year
H.C. Wainwright has kept its $90 target for more than a year. When it repeated the call last December, its discounted cash flow model had Oklo’s revenue topping $21 billion by 2038. Monday’s note kept the $90 even though three other firms cut their targets the same morning: Canaccord Genuity to $66 from $100, Goldman Sachs to $30 from $49 and Craig-Hallum to $27 from $53.
TIKR tracks 25 analysts on Oklo. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Oklo, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Oklo’s Analyst Ratings
Does $90 add up?
Not on the figures analysts have today. The average of the 21 targets TIKR tracks peaked at $117 in January and has since fallen to $63, from $104 a year ago.
Wainwright’s $90 sits 44% above that average.
The revenue behind all of those targets is tiny for now. Analysts expect $9.45 million in 2027 and $46.7 million in 2028. A year ago they expected $58.26 million for 2028.
Friday’s narrower-than-expected third-quarter loss gave analysts little reason to raise those estimates. Oklo kept its spending guidance and still gave no cost for Aurora-INL, its first power plant. With sales this small, the price-to-sales multiple isn’t much use: it was 488x at Friday’s close, and $90 works out to 1,863x.
The next stock sale comes before $90
Oklo’s $3.1 billion of cash and securities at Sept. 30 covers only about half of the $6.3 billion of free cash flow analysts expect it to burn from 2026 through 2030. And Meta Platforms (META) has prepaid toward a 1.2-gigawatt Oklo campus in Ohio, but the binding power contract hasn’t been signed yet.
Here’s where I land: $90 is too optimistic for the next year. Every share Oklo sells at today’s prices gives each holder a smaller slice of that 2038 revenue, and more sales are coming before the reactors earn anything. That changes if Oklo announces a low cost for Aurora-INL, which could come with its full-year report in March, or signs its power contract with Meta.
So what is Oklo stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Oklo could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
