Key Takeaways
- AST SpaceMobile is down 26% in the past week, a slide that began with reports that SpaceX is in talks to buy Boost Mobile, ahead of AST’s third-quarter report on Monday, Nov. 9.
- AST’s cash only just covers the burn analysts expect through 2028, and its new $1.3 billion Firefly engine deal comes on top.
- The selloff means any new share sale raises less money per share, and AST’s diluted share count has already more than doubled in two years.
- The report has to show third-quarter capital spending inside guidance, Verizon’s $45 million prepayment, and firm launch dates.
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is down 26% in the past week. The slide began Nov. 2, when The Washington Post reported SpaceX (SPCX) is in talks to buy EchoStar’s Boost Mobile, or use its network. That would put Starlink up against AST’s partners, AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ).
On Friday, AST also agreed to pay Firefly Aerospace (FLY) more than $1.3 billion, partly in stock, for rocket engines.
Neither company has confirmed a Boost deal. But the Nov. 9 report, due after the close, now has to show AST can keep building without selling a lot more stock.
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The cash covers the plan, with little to spare
First-half free cash flow was negative $1.00 billion. AST had pro forma cash of more than $3.7 billion at June 30, but $428 million backs a Ligado bridge loan. That leaves roughly $3.3 billion.
Analysts expect about $3.1 billion of burn from July 2026 through 2028. That’s funded on paper with almost nothing to spare, and the Firefly cash comes on top.
And the burn only eases if revenue climbs like this:
Analysts have already cut their 2027 estimate to $609 million, from $748 million at the end of June. That came after AST moved its target for about 45 BlueBirds in orbit from the end of 2026 to early 2027, and it has 12 up today. Another delay on Monday would push that revenue later and stretch the burn further.
AST has a habit of raising more
AST now trades at 29x forward sales, less than half its five-year average of 60x:
So each new share AST sells now raises less. Management said in March and May it had “no plans to pursue additional convertible debt.” Then in July, it sold $1.15 billion of convertible notes.
The share count more than doubled in two years…
The carriers have the most riding on Monday
AT&T needs AST’s satellites in orbit on time. On Nov. 2, the two companies announced what they believe is “the industry’s first successful handoff” between a ground network and AST’s satellites. AT&T added 379,000 postpaid phones in the third quarter with churn of 0.92%, and a satellite service it can sell before Starlink reaches phones would help it keep them. It and T-Mobile also lease network capacity to Boost, and reportedly may need to approve any transfer of those leases to SpaceX.
Verizon’s tie to AST is cash. That $45 million prepayment is small next to AST’s burn, but AST doesn’t have to sell shares to get it. If Monday’s release books it, a paying carrier still backs the buildout with SpaceX circling.
What Monday has to show
Holders should look for four things:
- Third-quarter capital spending inside the $350 million to $425 million guide.
- Firm launch dates for BlueBirds 14 to 16.
- Verizon’s $45 million prepayment, which AST’s latest filing lists as due.
- The quarter-end cash balance, and any raise since July.
As I see it, AST’s money lasts only if nothing else slips, and its launches have slipped all year. Without firm dates and spending inside guidance, I’d expect another raise before service revenue covers the burn.
Of course, firm dates or a carrier prepayment like stc’s $175 million in 2025 would ease the math fast.
So what is AST SpaceMobile stock actually worth?
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Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
