Key Takeaways
- SpaceX shares jumped 6% today as AI stocks rebounded, with Credo Technology and Astera Labs also rising, after a two-day selloff that cost SpaceX and Tesla over $420 billion of market value.
- The bounce looks like dip-buying: SpaceX had no news of its own, and the risks behind the drop are still in place.
- AI brought in $7.6 billion of SpaceX’s $14.6 billion of third-quarter revenue, so the stock trades with the chip names.
- Watch Texas’s stance on data centers, SpaceX’s financing costs, and fourth-quarter results.
SpaceX (SPCX) shares jumped 6% today as AI stocks bounced back from a brutal post-midterm selloff. Chip suppliers led, with Credo Technology (CRDO) up 4% and Astera Labs (ALAB) up 3%.
On Thursday, SpaceX fell 9% and Tesla 11%. In the two days after Tuesday’s Democratic sweep of Congress, the two Musk companies lost more than $420 billion of combined market value.
A bounce with no news behind it
SpaceX didn’t announce anything that explains the jump. It moved with the whole AI group, as investors bought back into stocks sold off on fears Democrats would slow data-center approvals. Nvidia rose 6%, Applied Materials (AMAT) rose 4%, and Lumentum (LITE) rose 3%, in step with Marvell, which is buying it in an all-stock deal.
AI is SpaceX’s biggest business now
SpaceX trades like a chip stock for a reason. Its AI segment, Super Intelligence, brought in $7.6 billion of the company’s $14.6 billion of third-quarter revenue.
And analysts expect revenue to nearly quadruple from 2026 to 2027, then nearly double again in 2028:
Analysts are counting on a data-center build that keeps running at full speed, and the midterms put that in question.
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The risks haven’t moved
Today’s gain doesn’t even make up Thursday’s drop, and nothing behind that drop has changed:
- Democrat Gina Hinojosa won the Texas governor’s race promising a moratorium on data centers, and Wells Fargo puts 27% of planned US data-center capacity in Texas, where SpaceX has projects.
- GLJ Research said Thursday the Democrats’ wins make a SpaceX-Tesla merger less likely.
- The cost to insure SpaceX’s debt against default hit a record during the selloff.
Management guides fourth-quarter capex to $35 billion to $40 billion, against $89.9 billion of cash and marketable securities at Sept. 30. And SpaceX’s banks are shopping pieces of a roughly $40 billion chip financing to investors, Bloomberg reported. The price those investors demand will tell us what the build really costs.
A relief rally, for now
Today’s move looks like relief to me. SpaceX traded at about 45x forward earnings at the last close, and even higher at today’s price, on estimates that need the data-center build to keep its pace. I’d expect the stock to keep swinging with the chip names until Texas and the financing play out.
Of course, the moratorium is still a campaign promise. Fourth-quarter results early next year will show whether December revenue hit management’s $100 billion annualized goal.
So what is SpaceX stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
