Key Takeaways
- Cipher Digital jumped 5% after a rival called its more than $4 billion annualized revenue target “fully contracted and fully funded.”
- TeraWulf’s results this morning showed this group can still fund its data center builds.
- Cipher ended September with $5.62 billion of debt against $660 million of cash and short-term investments.
- Cipher’s next lease, and how it’s financed, will show whether this bounce holds.
Cipher Digital (CIFR) is up 5% today with no news of its own. A rival reported after Thursday’s close that its AI Cloud revenue nearly tripled from the prior quarter to $200 million. It also said its more than $4 billion annualized revenue target is “fully contracted and fully funded.”
Funding has been this group’s big fear, and Cipher’s since it sold $850 million of zero-coupon convertible notes in October.
TeraWulf (WULF) added to the case this morning. It ended September with $2.4 billion of cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash. It says about 97% of the construction capex for its New York campus is secured, and Google is backstopping the financing it expects to raise for its $19 billion Anthropic lease. Can Cipher say the same?
IREN still has $6 billion to raise
That rival is IREN (IREN), and its “fully funded” covers only the program behind its $4 billion target. Its fiscal-year plan calls for $15 billion of remaining capex. Cash, committed GPU financing and prepayments cover $9 billion of it, and the other $6 billion depends on market conditions.
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Cipher’s ramp still needs funding
Analysts expect Cipher’s revenue to nearly quadruple in 2027 as its leases start paying rent:
Nothing in IREN’s report touches Cipher’s leases, so I wouldn’t expect today’s news to move those estimates.
Investors aren’t paying for that ramp yet. Cipher traded at 3.9x forward sales, about a third of its three-year average of 11.4x:
Debt is the reason. Cipher’s total debt reached $5.62 billion by Sept. 30, against $660 million of cash and short-term investments:
That was before October’s note sale, which came after Barber Lake’s expansion in September needed about $750 million of Cipher’s own equity.
A relief rally, for now
Today’s jump makes sense, but Cipher still has to show it can fund its own campuses.
Before I’d call this more than a bounce, I’d want Cipher’s next lease to come with project debt covering most of the build, and no new stock. A fourth lease at Reveille, Ulysses or Odessa would be the first real test.
So what is Cipher Digital stock actually worth?
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