Key Takeaways
- AST SpaceMobile is down 55% in 2026 and hit a new 52-week low on Nov. 6, after a $1.15 billion convertible raise in July and SpaceX’s push into direct-to-phone service.
- SpaceX’s spectrum buy and its reported talks to buy Boost Mobile could put Starlink up against AT&T and AST’s other carrier partners.
- AST trades well below its usual forward sales multiple, but its cash barely exceeds the burn analysts expect through 2028, and its new rocket adds about $900 million in cash costs on top.
- Every $1 billion of new stock now takes about four times as many shares as at the May high, so the Nov. 9 report needs firm launch dates that make another raise less likely.
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is down 55% in 2026. It hit a 52-week low of $27.58 on Nov. 6 before closing at $32.33, about three-quarters below its May high.
SpaceX (SPCX) went public in June. Since then it has agreed to buy spectrum and, reportedly, gone after a US network that could let Starlink sell phone service against AT&T (T), AST’s lead US carrier partner.
SpaceX keeps closing in
On Oct. 8, SpaceX agreed to buy Grain Management’s nationwide 800 MHz spectrum, airwaves AST had reportedly pursued too. On Nov. 2, The Washington Post reported that SpaceX is in talks to buy EchoStar’s Boost Mobile, or to use its network, though neither has confirmed it. And SpaceX’s Falcon 9 flew AST’s last two BlueBird missions, so for now AST relies on its biggest competitor to reach orbit.
That’s awkward for AT&T, which needs AST’s satellites up before Starlink reaches its customers’ phones. On Nov. 2, the two companies said they’d completed what they believe is the first handoff between a ground network and AST’s satellites. AT&T also leases capacity to Boost and, per the Post, may need to approve moving those leases to SpaceX, giving it a say over Starlink’s US plans.
TIKR tracks 13 analysts on AST SpaceMobile. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on AST SpaceMobile, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See AST SpaceMobile’s Analyst Ratings
AST’s own schedule slipped too
In July, AST pushed back its goal of roughly 45 BlueBirds in orbit to early 2027, from late 2026. It has launched 13, one of them lost in April. Those satellites have to fly before revenue can grow from $70.9 million in 2025 to the $1.73 billion analysts expect for 2028:
Analysts’ 2027 estimate is already down to $609 million, from $748 million on June 30, and another delay would likely bring more cuts.
Net of $428 million pledged against a Ligado-related bridge loan, AST had about $3.3 billion of pro forma cash at June 30. That’s barely more than the roughly $3.1 billion of negative free cash flow analysts expect from July 2026 through 2028. And on Nov. 6, AST agreed to build Blacklift, its own reusable rocket, on Firefly Aerospace engines. The deal adds about $900 million in cash plus 10 million to 14 million new shares, for a rocket not expected to fly until late 2028.
Every raise costs more per share now
On May 11, CFO Andy Johnson said AST did not “have any plans to pursue additional convertible debt in 2026,” as he had in March. In July, AST sold $1.15 billion of 1.625% convertible notes due 2034 anyway. A class action now alleges AST overstated how far its capital would go. The claims are unproven.
Each new share AST sells raises less money. AST traded at 35x forward sales on Nov. 2, far below the 60x it has averaged over five years:
At the Nov. 6 close, $1 billion of new stock takes roughly four times as many shares as at the May high. Diluted shares already climbed from 51.7 million in 2021 to 256 million in 2025:
By the second quarter of 2026, the count was 299.06 million, more than double two years earlier.
Nov. 9 comes first
Cheap as AST looks against its history, loading up can wait. Launches have slipped all year, and without firm dates, another raise at a lower price looks likely. When AST reports after the close on Nov. 9, watch for:
- Firm launch dates for BlueBirds 14 to 16
- Third-quarter capital spending within the $350 million to $425 million guide
- Verizon’s $45 million prepayment, which AST lists as due
- Cash at Sept. 30, and any money raised since July
Blacklift’s Nov. 12 unveiling should then show the rocket’s full cost. If AST delivers firm dates and keeps spending in check, the discount to its five-year multiple looks like an opportunity.
So what is AST SpaceMobile stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what AST SpaceMobile could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Value AST SpaceMobile for free
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
