Rocket Lab Is Up 28% in a Year, Down 57% From May’s High: Take Profits, or Load Up?

Key Takeaways

• Rocket Lab stock is up 28% in a year but sits 57% below its May high.
• The business kept growing: third-quarter revenue hit a record $268 million, up 73%, and backlog reached a record $3.57 billion.
• Paying for its pending Iridium Communications deal took 29.3 million new shares, and Neutron’s first launch has slipped into 2027.
• The stock still trades well above its five-year average on forward sales, so it makes sense to hold off on buying more until Rocket Lab names a Neutron launch date.

Rocket Lab (RKLB) stock is up 28% in a year through the Nov. 12 close, but it’s down 57% from the closing high it hit on May 27, when space stocks ran up ahead of SpaceX’s June IPO.

Since then, the business has kept growing, and Rocket Lab agreed to buy Iridium Communications (IRDM). But shareholders have paid for that growth with new stock, and Neutron, Rocket Lab’s medium-lift rocket, is running late.

Rocket Lab made three big announcements after the peak:

• June 29: It agreed to buy Iridium for about $8.0 billion of enterprise value, paying Iridium holders $27 a share in cash plus Rocket Lab stock.
• Sept. 15: It finished a $1.94 billion at-the-market stock sale for the deal, issuing 29.3 million shares, and cancelled a $3.6 billion bridge loan.
• Oct. 14: It pushed Neutron’s first launch into 2027.

The quarter showed the demand is real

Then came a record third quarter on Nov. 9. Revenue rose 73% to $268 million, beating the $257 million analysts expected, and backlog jumped 52% from June to $3.57 billion. More than $515 million of new Neutron contracts helped, and Rocket Lab charged a $70 million base price on several of them, above the $50 million-$55 million it had quoted before. The loss of 12 cents a share was wider than the 7 cents expected, partly on one-time Iridium deal costs, but fourth-quarter revenue guidance of 270million-290 million topped the $265 million analysts expected.

Analysts expect revenue to keep climbing, from $602 million in 2025 to $1.76 billion in 2028:

A record backlog gives those estimates real orders to stand on, though only about a third of it is due to turn into revenue within the next 12 months.

TIKR tracks 22 analysts on Rocket Lab. How many say “Buy”?

See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Rocket Lab, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Rocket Lab’s Analyst Ratings

Shareholders paid for Iridium

Rocket Lab’s diluted share count was already climbing well before the Iridium deal:

And the stock sale pushed it higher: the weighted count reached 652 million in the third quarter, up from 529 million a year earlier. There could be more, too, since Iridium holders get the most Rocket Lab stock the deal allows if Rocket Lab’s average price is $67.50 or less heading into the deal’s close in mid-2027. The stock closed at $64.07 on Nov. 12, below that line.

The payoff depends on what Rocket Lab does with Iridium, which had $871.7 million of revenue in 2025. Founder and CEO Sir Peter Beck said on Monitoring the Situation in September that Rocket Lab isn’t “stopping at being the L-band communications company,” adding, “We can build whatever satellite you can possibly imagine and we can launch it.” But Rocket Lab needs Neutron flying to launch whole constellations on its own rockets.

Wait for a Neutron date

Beck again gave no launch date on the third-quarter call, and Rocket Lab won’t set one until Neutron’s first-stage tank finishes qualifying, which it expects in the first quarter of 2027. CFO Adam Spice said in August that he expects adjusted EBITDA to turn positive in the quarter after Neutron’s first successful flight, so analysts push their earnings out with every delay. Their 2027 normalized EPS estimate is now 3 cents, versus 16 cents a year ago.

And Rocket Lab stock still isn’t cheap. Its forward price/sales multiple has fallen from 89x at May’s peak to 34x, still well above its 21x five-year average:

TIKR’s Street average target is $102, but Piper Sandler cut its own to a Street-low $58 on Nov. 10 because of Neutron’s timing.

For current holders, the backlog and rising Neutron prices aren’t reasons to sell. Loading up is harder to justify until the company names a launch date, since at 34x forward sales, investors are already paying for a Neutron that hasn’t flown. Fourth-quarter results early in 2027 are the next chance for one.

So what is Rocket Lab stock actually worth?

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Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!