Key Takeaways
- AST SpaceMobile fell 8% today on a third-quarter miss and BofA’s price target cut to $45 from $80.
- Revenue nearly tripled to $42.3 million, but BofA is worried about launches and AST’s plan to build its own rocket.
- AST’s goal of about 45 satellites in orbit has slipped to mid-2027, and its next three are waiting on a SpaceX launch date.
- Rocket Lab’s new rocket has slipped too, and AT&T is waiting on AST’s U.S. service.
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is down 8% today on a third-quarter miss, a day after its Rakuten joint venture sent shares soaring. BofA cut its price target to $45 from $80, warning that launches could slip and that building its own rocket adds risk.
That reaches SpaceX (SPCX), AST’s launcher and rival; Rocket Lab (RKLB), which is building a rocket of its own; and AT&T (T), which is waiting on AST’s U.S. service.
Costs ran ahead of sales
Revenue came in at $42.3 million, up from $14.7 million a year earlier. The miss came on costs: adjusted operating expenses rose $14.5 million from the second quarter to $133.6 million. Analysts went into the report expecting revenue to reach $609 million in 2027:
And the 2027 estimate depends on satellites that aren’t in orbit yet.
Launches are still the whole story
AST’s goal of about 45 BlueBirds in orbit has slipped to mid-2027 from early 2027, and 12 are up today. BlueBirds 14 to 16 are still waiting on a launch date from SpaceX, which flew 12 launches for customers in the third quarter, down from 15 a year earlier, and has agreed to buy spectrum for its own phone service.
So I get why AST wants Blacklift, its own reusable rocket due in late 2028. Rocket Lab shows the catch: it posted record third-quarter revenue of $268 million, but its Neutron rocket won’t fly before 2027.
For AT&T, the year-end date matters more than the rocket. Its postpaid phone churn held at 0.92% in the third quarter, and satellite coverage would give its customers one more reason to stay as SpaceX moves into phone service.
TIKR tracks 13 analysts on AST SpaceMobile. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on AST SpaceMobile, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See AST SpaceMobile’s Analyst Ratings
The cash has to last
AST traded at 31x forward sales at Monday’s close, against a five-year average of 60x (today’s drop takes it a little lower):
And the cash going out the door has grown:
That’s about $1.8 billion over the last four quarters, against $3.2 billion of cash.
Bottom line: BofA’s cut looks fair to me. At this rate of spending, I don’t think AST can absorb many more delays without raising money. Of course, a SpaceX launch date for BlueBirds 14 to 16 and U.S. service by year-end would answer most of that.
So what is AST SpaceMobile stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
