Key Takeaways
- D-Wave Quantum shares fell 8% after third-quarter bookings dropped 19% and its loss missed, even as revenue rose 21%.
- Outside two January deals and acquired orders, nine-month bookings were roughly flat.
- Analysts’ 2026 estimate needs about $32 million of fourth-quarter revenue.
- IonQ’s raised guidance sparked the pre-report rally, and IonQ now owns SkyWater, a key D-Wave supplier.
D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) gave back part of its quantum rally today, falling 8% after its third-quarter report.
The stock had climbed about 14% in the week before, largely on IonQ‘s (IONQ) raised guidance. IonQ also closed its purchase of SkyWater on July 31, and SkyWater is the foundry D-Wave just signed a multi-year manufacturing extension with. So a direct rival now runs a plant D-Wave’s chip roadmap leans on.
Revenue beat, but costs climbed faster
Revenue of $4.5 million beat the $4.34 million analysts expected. The rest was harder to love:
- Bookings: $1.9 million, down from $2.4 million a year earlier
- GAAP operating expenses: $55.9 million, up 84%
- Adjusted loss: $0.11 a share, a penny worse than expected
And analysts went in expecting revenue to nearly double in 2027 and again in 2028.
Strip out two January deals, and bookings are flat
D-Wave’s revenue shows how lumpy big deals are: it jumped to $15.0 million in the March 2025 quarter, when the Jülich system landed.
So one soft quarter doesn’t worry me. Nine-month bookings of $37.4 million rose 611%, mostly from three things: January’s $10 million Fortune 100 license, Florida Atlantic University’s $20 million system and the orders Quantum Circuits brought with it. Outside those, nine-month bookings were about $5.1 million, against $5.3 million a year earlier.
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D-Wave needs a huge fourth quarter
Nine-month revenue was $10.4 million, so the $42.7 million estimate for 2026 needs about $32 million in the fourth quarter. On today’s call, acting CFO Greg Golkov said that for the FAU sale, “a substantial portion of revenue will be recognized upon delivery, which we expect to occur in the fourth quarter.”
But the stock closed yesterday at 66x forward sales. That’s below its three-year average of 153x, and today’s drop takes it a bit lower.
The way I see it, today’s drop is fair. The everyday business is booking about what it did a year ago, and at that multiple the stock needs the big deals to keep coming. If FAU’s machine ships on time and a second system order lands by year-end, this quarter’s bookings will look like noise.
So what is D-Wave stock actually worth?
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