Key Takeaways
- GFL Environmental fell 9% today after its board rejected take-private bids.
- The board reportedly turned down $52 a share after asking for $58 or more.
- Analysts already have GFL on pace for the free cash flow doubling its CEO promises.
- GFL still trades at a richer multiple than Waste Connections and WM, and its sponsors’ stakes may come up for sale.
GFL Environmental (GFL) fell 9% today after its board turned away private equity buyers. Now it has to earn its price on a plan that would make it look a lot more like Waste Connections (WCN) and WM (WM).
The board wanted more than $52
The Globe and Mail reported that the board turned down a $52-a-share offer from Blackstone, KKR and Energy Capital Partners after asking for $58 or more.
CEO Patrick Dovigi made the case for going it alone: “The Company has never had a better outlook.” He said GFL’s cash flow “should allow for a doubling of free cash flow per share over the next five years.”
The cash flow is already coming
Analysts expect GFL’s free cash flow to climb from $756 million in fiscal 2025 to $1.43 billion in fiscal 2028:
That’s 50% growth on this year’s estimate in two years, ahead of the pace a five-year doubling needs.
The price is another matter. GFL traded at 52x forward earnings at Monday’s close, just under its five-year average of 54x:
Today’s drop takes it into the mid-40s, still well above Waste Connections’ 32x and WM’s 28x.
Waste Connections already runs where GFL is headed: its adjusted EBITDA margin was 34.0% in the third quarter, above GFL’s low-to-mid-30s target, and it has closed about $130 million of annualized revenue in acquisitions this year. With GFL now promising “robust levels of M&A,” will Waste Connections have to pay up for its next deals?
WM returned more than $2.72 billion to shareholders in the first nine months of 2026, over 90% of its free cash flow. That’s where GFL’s plan leads, and the market pays a far lower multiple for WM.
TIKR tracks 21 analysts on GFL Environmental. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on GFL Environmental, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See GFL Environmental’s Analyst Ratings
I’d give the board the benefit of the doubt
I think the board made the right call: the Street already models most of the growth Dovigi promised. The bigger worry is supply. Dovigi said some parties still want to buy “some or all” of the stakes held by GFL’s financial sponsors, so block sales could weigh on the shares. GFL’s fourth-quarter report, due early next year, should bring its 2027 guidance, the first real check on that doubling.
So what is GFL stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what GFL could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
