Key Takeaways
- D-Wave Quantum closed up 18% on Friday after IonQ raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $505-515 million, with no news of its own.
- D-Wave’s second-quarter revenue was $3.1 million, flat, and analysts’ $42.7 million for 2026 leaves about $36.8 million for the second half.
- First-half free cash flow was about -$79 million.
- D-Wave reports before the open on November 10, and orders matter more than the quarter’s revenue.
D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) stock closed up 18% at $10.68 on Friday with no news of its own. The spark was IonQ (IONQ), which beat estimates and raised its outlook after Thursday’s close. Rigetti Computing (RGTI) rose 19% alongside it.
Both report on Tuesday, November 10, D-Wave before the open and Rigetti after the close. That gives D-Wave one report to show its own business can hold a gain IonQ handed it.
IonQ’s Quarter Was the Real Thing
IonQ’s third-quarter revenue rose 336% to $173.8 million, well ahead of the $141.2 million analysts expected, and 2026 guidance went to $505-515 million from $450-460 million. COO and CFO Inder Singh called it “an industry record of more than half a billion dollars.”
Some of that was bought: SkyWater, acquired in July, added $83.5 million. IonQ’s Platform segment still grew 127% to $90.3 million.
D-Wave’s link is as a customer. SkyWater makes its processors, and D-Wave extended that multi-year deal in October. But D-Wave doesn’t book a dollar of IonQ’s revenue.
D-Wave’s Revenue Hasn’t Caught Up
D-Wave’s second-quarter revenue was $3.1 million, flat, and it has missed estimates for three straight quarters. First-half bookings look better at $35.5 million against $2.9 million a year earlier, but most of that came from two January deals, including a $10 million, two-year QCaaS contract with a Fortune 100 company.
Analysts still expect revenue to climb from $24.6 million in 2025 to $42.7 million this year and $80.6 million in 2027:
After $5.9 million in the first half, that leaves about $36.8 million for the second. Management expects fourth-quarter revenue to account for most of the year’s total, with both planned systems likely to ship then, including Florida Atlantic University’s $20 million machine. Some installation and calibration revenue is expected to carry into 2027.
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What D-Wave Stock Prices In Now
D-Wave traded at 61x forward sales on Friday, well below its three-year average of 152x and far from the 839x it hit in October 2025:
A delivery slipping into 2027 would threaten the 2026 revenue estimate. At an unchanged stock price, the 61x forward-sales multiple would rise only if analysts cut their next-12-month revenue estimates.
The Burn Has to Ease
Free cash flow has been negative in 11 of the last 12 quarters, and it worsened this year: -$46.0 million in the first quarter and -$32.9 million in the second, against -$19.7 million and -$16.0 million a year earlier:
D-Wave held $546.2 million of cash and securities at June 30, and the Commerce Department award adds up to $100 million for an equity stake. Analysts’ roughly -$140 million full-year estimate allows only about $61 million of second-half burn, or $30 million a quarter. Third-quarter burn above that pace would require lower fourth-quarter burn to meet the full-year estimate, while diluted shares have already tripled since 2022.
What D-Wave Has to Show on Tuesday
A quarter this small swings on one sale, so revenue against consensus won’t settle much. What can earn Friday’s jump is demand beyond January: a new system order, another enterprise contract, or cloud revenue clearly above the second quarter’s $1.86 million. Bookings near the second quarter’s $2.1 million would leave D-Wave leaning on IonQ’s story.
Without new orders, I wouldn’t trust this rally, and even a strong Tuesday leaves the year resting on two fourth-quarter deliveries D-Wave won’t report until early next year.
So What Is D-Wave Quantum Stock Actually Worth?
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