Key Takeaways
- Rigetti Computing closed up 19% on Friday and D-Wave Quantum 18% after IonQ raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $505-515 million.
- Rigetti needs about $13.4 million of second-half revenue to reach analysts’ $22.9 million estimate, and $8.4 million of it rides on one system for India.
- Second-quarter free cash flow was -$27.8 million, Rigetti’s largest outflow in two years.
- Rigetti needs an order of its own on November 10 to hold Friday’s gain.
Rigetti Computing (RGTI) stock closed up 19% at $11.75 on Friday, and D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) gained 18%. Neither had news of its own; the spark was IonQ (IONQ), which beat estimates after Thursday’s close and raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $505-515 million.
The bounce came off Thursday’s $9.85 close, Rigetti’s lowest in a year. Its own test comes after the close on Tuesday, November 10.
IonQ Earned Its Rally. Rigetti Hasn’t Yet
IonQ’s third-quarter revenue was $173.8 million, up 336%, including $83.5 million from its newly acquired SkyWater foundry business. Its IonQ Platform segment grew 127% to $90.3 million, and the new full-year guidance sits well above the $455 million analysts expected. COO and CFO Inder Singh called it “an industry record of more than half a billion dollars.” Backlog more than doubled to $1.2 billion.
Rigetti’s second-quarter revenue was $5.1 million. Analysts expect $22.9 million for all of 2026, about 13% of what IonQ booked in one quarter.
Rigetti Needs About $13 Million More
Revenue fell from $12.0 million in 2023 to $7.1 million in 2025. Analysts expect it to triple this year, then roughly double in each of the next two:
First-half revenue was $9.5 million, leaving $13.4 million to find. A 108-qubit system for India’s C-DAC should supply $8.4 million, but only after installation and acceptance in the fourth quarter. A slip into 2027 takes more than a third of this year’s estimate with it. That leaves about $5 million for everything else, and Rigetti’s whole third quarter last year brought in $1.9 million.
TIKR Tracks 13 Analysts on Rigetti Computing. How Many Say “Buy”?
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What Rigetti Stock Already Prices In
Rigetti traded at 123x forward sales at Thursday’s close, and Friday’s jump lifts that to roughly 147x:
That’s below its three-year average of 225x, but it was 7.9x in August 2024. B. Riley’s Craig Ellis kept his Buy rating on November 2 but cut his target to $25 from $35. Investors are already paying for the tripling, and IonQ’s quarter doesn’t make it likelier.
Rigetti’s Cash Burn Hit a Two-Year High
Free cash flow was -$27.8 million in the second quarter, against -$21.8 million a year earlier:
First-half capital spending doubled to $16.4 million, mostly fab and refrigeration equipment. Analysts expect about -$88 million for the year, roughly $20 million a quarter in the second half.
Funding isn’t the problem yet: $541.3 million of cash and investments, no debt. The Commerce Department award adds up to $100 million for 7.74 million new shares, though $56.1 million depends on milestones.
D-Wave Reports First
D-Wave’s first-half bookings jumped 1,120% to $35.5 million, but second-quarter revenue was flat at $3.1 million against $55.0 million of operating expenses. It needs $36.5 million in the second half to hit analysts’ $42.5 million. A miss leaves both stocks leaning on IonQ alone.
What Rigetti Has to Show on Tuesday
- A new system order, since C-DAC alone won’t close the gap.
- Confirmation that C-DAC is on track for acceptance by year-end.
- A burn near the $20 million quarterly pace analysts expect.
The 108-qubit system sits at 99.1% fidelity, and its 99.5% target has slipped twice since end-2025. Hitting it could cushion a soft quarter.
At roughly 147x forward sales, Rigetti hasn’t earned Friday’s gain. Without a new order on Tuesday, I’d expect it to give a good chunk back, and C-DAC’s $8.4 million won’t show until the fourth-quarter report early next year.
So What Is Rigetti Stock Actually Worth?
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