Key Takeaways
- Sixteen big funds reported more Carvana shares on June 30 than on March 31, but May’s 5-for-1 split explains most of that, and only 10 added meaningfully.
- Carvana sold a record 217,385 cars in the third quarter, up 39%, but adjusted EBITDA per car fell from a year earlier for a fourth straight quarter.
- Analysts expect EPS to climb from $1.52 this year to $2.71 in 2028, while the stock trades at about 36x forward earnings, down from 63x at the end of 2025.
- Carvana looks more like a bargain than a trap, as long as profit per car stops falling.
Sixteen big funds reported holding more Carvana (CVNA) shares on June 30 than on March 31, according to their second-quarter 13Fs, filed Aug. 12 and Aug. 14. The stock closed at $73.57 on Friday, Nov. 6, about 12% above its June 30 close but 23% below its 52-week closing high of $95.69 from Jan. 22.
The catch: much of that “buying” is a stock split.
Only 10 of the 16 Really Added to Carvana
Carvana split its stock 5-for-1 in May, so a fund that sat still from March to June now reports five times as many shares. Three funds reported 386% to 408% more shares, or between a 2.8% cut and a 1.6% gain after the split. Greenoaks topped it with 330,000 more shares, a sliver of a $1.40 billion stake worth 59.6% of its 13F stocks. Three others, including Viking Global, cut by 11% or more, though Viking still held 12.32 million shares worth $811 million.
That leaves 10 funds that added meaningfully. Electron Capital and GoldenTree were new holders, and Durable Capital and Lone Pine each grew their stakes by a fifth or more.
TIKR Tracks 24 Analysts on Carvana. How Many Say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Carvana, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Carvana’s Analyst Ratings
Profit per Car Keeps Slipping
The business is growing fast. Carvana sold a record 217,385 cars in the third quarter, up 39%, and revenue rose 42% to $8.04 billion. Adjusted EBITDA hit a record $800 million, up from $637 million, and management now expects the full year at the higher end of its $2.7 billion to $3.0 billion range.
Per car, though, adjusted EBITDA fell to about $3,680 from $4,085. Other gross profit per car, mostly gains on selling the loans Carvana makes, fell about $300. That’s partly by choice: CEO Ernie Garcia said in July that Carvana had passed more than 100 basis points of rate cuts on to buyers over the past year, even as benchmark rates rose.
Do the Numbers Back the Funds?
On earnings, yes. Analysts expect EPS to dip this year, then climb to $2.71 by 2028:
Pre-tax income tells a stronger story than the dip: it rose 49% to $1.0 billion in the first half of 2026, and analysts have lifted their 2027 estimate to $2.25 from $2.10 at the end of June.
Yet Carvana trades at 36x forward earnings, down from 63x at the end of 2025 and below its 45x average over the past year. That’s up from a low of 26x just before the third-quarter report:
Price targets have slid too. The consensus target peaked at $97 in January and now sits at $81, its low for the year:
After the post-earnings rally, that’s only about 10% above Friday’s close. Needham cut its target to $100 from $120 but kept its Buy rating.
A Bargain, If Carvana’s Profit per Car Turns
The risk is simple. If profit per car keeps falling, Carvana could miss earnings estimates despite strong unit growth, and from its fourth-quarter call on, it won’t give quarterly or annual outlooks.
Still, I’d side with the 10 funds that bought in earnest. Carvana earned more adjusted EBITDA last quarter than ever, even with less profit on each car, and at about 36x, the stock still trades below its 45x average for estimates that keep rising. After the rally, that’s a call for patient holders, not traders.
The funds’ third-quarter 13Fs, due by Nov. 16, will show who kept buying. Carvana’s February report will show whether profit per car has turned.
So What Is Carvana Stock Actually Worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
