Key Takeaways
- D-Wave shares rose 18% on Friday after IonQ’s strong quarter, yet the stock is still down 45% over three months.
- D-Wave has missed revenue consensus for three straight quarters, and analysts expect $4.34 million in Tuesday’s report.
- The Commerce Department bought shares at $14.09, about 32% above Friday’s $10.68 close, under the CHIPS funding deal.
- D-Wave’s chip foundry, SkyWater, now belongs to IonQ, which adds a supply wrinkle to watch on Tuesday’s call.
D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) rose 18% on Friday to $11, and it didn’t need its own news to do it.
IonQ (IONQ) set off the move with a 336% jump in third-quarter revenue and a 23.4% gain in its stock. IonQ also owns SkyWater, the foundry that makes D-Wave’s quantum chips.
Even after Friday, D-Wave is down 45% over three months and 67% below its 52-week high.
The government sits underwater too. Under the CHIPS agreement, the Commerce Department took 7.1 million shares at $14.09 each.
Three misses and a fourth test
D-Wave reports on Tuesday. Here’s where its recent quarters landed against consensus:
- Fourth quarter 2025: $2.75 million vs $3.77 million expected
- First quarter 2026: $2.86 million vs $4.14 million
- Second quarter 2026: $3.08 million vs $4.02 million
This time, analysts expect $4.34 million, up 16% from a year ago. That would be D-Wave’s best quarter in a year, after three straight reports that fell short.
The pattern is easy to see…
Revenue has gone sideways near $3 million a quarter while estimates kept assuming a breakout.
Better mix, same scale problem
There’s real progress inside those small numbers. Commercial customers made up 62% of second-quarter revenue, up from 45%, and trailing gross margin is 64.2%.
D-Wave also keeps adding partners. It teamed up with LG CNS on quantum optimization in South Korea and extended its multi-year chip manufacturing deal with SkyWater in October.
That SkyWater deal has an odd new shape. IonQ, a direct competitor, now owns the fab.
Gross margin tells the healthier side of the story:
The margin holds up because most revenue comes from software and cloud access. The trouble is that a 64% margin on $3 million of revenue can’t cover the operating costs.
TIKR tracks 17 analysts on D-Wave Quantum. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on D-Wave Quantum, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See D-Wave Quantum’s Analyst Ratings
Paying up for patience
D-Wave’s trailing operating margin is negative 1,373%. Net cash of about $498 million gives it runway, but the burn is real.
Valuation leaves little room for another miss. At 53x forward sales, D-Wave costs more than three times what investors pay for IonQ, which just showed far faster growth.
The finance seat has turned over as well. CFO John Markovich retired in August, and Greg Golkov is serving as acting CFO.
My take: The average Street target near $34 implies 217% upside, but that number has looked stale through three straight misses. D-Wave’s commercial mix is improving, and that matters. Until revenue clears a consensus number, though, I’d read Friday’s 18% as sympathy for IonQ.
Tuesday is the checkpoint. A beat on $4.34 million would be D-Wave’s first in a year, and any comment on SkyWater supply under IonQ ownership is worth listening for.
So what is D-Wave Quantum stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
