Key Takeaways
- B. Riley cut its Rigetti Computing price target to $25 from $35 on November 2 and kept its Buy rating, with the stock down 75% from its 52-week high.
- Most of that drop came from investors paying far less for expected sales. The stock’s forward price/sales multiple fell from 1,415x in October 2025 to 130x by late October 2026.
- Analysts cut their 2028 revenue estimate 19% over the summer, and getting to $25 would take about 288x forward sales, above the stock’s 224x three-year average.
- The selloff hasn’t gone too far. The November 10 report and an $8.4 million system for India are the next tests.
Rigetti Computing (RGTI) has lost 75% from its 52-week high, and B. Riley cut its price target on the stock to $25 from $35 on Monday. Even the lower target sits 122% above the stock’s current price of $11.25.
Rigetti Keeps Missing Its Own Dates
On November 6, 2025, DARPA named 11 companies moving on to Stage B of its Quantum Benchmarking Initiative, its test of which quantum designs can scale. Rigetti wasn’t one of them. Nine months later, CEO Subodh Kulkarni was still waiting. On the second-quarter call he said: “We still feel optimistic that we will get into DARPA Phase B relatively soon.”
Rigetti has pushed back its fidelity goal, too. Its 108-qubit system runs at a 99.1% median two-qubit gate fidelity, a measure of how error-free its operations are. Management now aims for about 99.5% “later this year,” a goal it first set for the end of 2025.
B. Riley Trims Rigetti but Keeps Buying
B. Riley’s Craig Ellis kept his Buy rating after reiterating $35 as recently as September 21. He cut his D-Wave Quantum target the same day, to $27 from $40, so this looks like a reset of the firm’s quantum targets across the board.
Ellis has read this stock well before. A year ago, about three weeks after Rigetti’s mid-October 2025 peak, he downgraded it to Neutral, arguing the price already reflected much of its long-term potential.
Does $25 Add Up for Rigetti?
Analysts haven’t followed the stock down. Their consensus target peaked at $41 in November 2025 and has slid to $29, still more than 150% above the stock.
They expect revenue to climb from $7.1 million in 2025 to $23.3 million in 2026 and $83.4 million in 2028.
That 2028 figure was $102.5 million at the end of June, so analysts cut it 19% over the summer. They also expect losses of $0.19 a share this year and $0.21 next year.
TIKR Tracks 13 Analysts on Rigetti Computing. How Many Say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Rigetti Computing, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Rigetti Computing’s Analyst Ratings
Most of the stock’s drop came from investors paying far less for each dollar of expected sales. Rigetti traded at 1,415x forward sales in mid-October 2025 and at 130x at Friday’s close. Its average over the past three years is 224x.
At $25, investors would pay about 288x forward sales, well above that average.
Rigetti Is Still Priced for Success
Rigetti held $541.3 million of cash and investments and no debt at June 30. The risk is dilution. Its weighted diluted share count tripled from 2022 to 2025, and the government’s $100 million award in September came with 7.7 million new shares.
The selloff hasn’t gone too far. At 130x forward sales, Rigetti is still priced as if its roadmap works. Getting to $25 would take more than twice that multiple, while analysts trim their revenue forecasts.
The first check comes with third-quarter results on November 10. Rigetti expects to book its $8.4 million system for India’s C-DAC in the fourth quarter, after acceptance testing, and that one order is 36% of this year’s revenue estimate. A 99.5% fidelity reading on the 108-qubit system by year-end would do more for the stock than any target.
So what is Rigetti Computing stock actually worth?
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