Key Takeaways
- Lucid shares jumped 12% today after Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund added $1.75 billion to its loan, lifting pro forma liquidity to $3.75 billion.
- Third-quarter results missed estimates, but Lucid cut its quarterly cash burn 30% from the second quarter, to $1.04 billion.
- The loan funds Lucid to Midsize production in late 2027, good news for robotaxi buyer Uber, while Rivian already sells its midsize R2.
- Midsize has to arrive on time: if it slips again, Lucid will need more money.
Lucid Group (LCID) stock is up 12% today after Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF), its largest shareholder, added $1.75 billion to Lucid’s delayed-draw term loan.
CEO Silvio Napoli said Lucid’s transformation “is beginning to show progress,” and the cash numbers back him up. That’s good news for Uber (UBER), which is counting on Lucid for robotaxis, and a yardstick for Rivian (RIVN), which is ramping its own midsize SUV.
The loan buys Lucid a year
Third-quarter revenue of $350 million, up 4% from a year earlier, missed the $407 million analysts expected, per LSEG, and shares slid after hours Monday. Analysts expect sales to roughly quintuple from 2025 to 2028 as Midsize ramps:
The miss puts this year’s $1.55 billion estimate at risk, but the later years depend on Midsize.
Investors cared more about cash burn, which fell 30% from the second quarter to $1.04 billion. That’s its first improvement after three straight quarters of deeper burn:
At that pace, Lucid’s $2.0 billion of liquidity lasts about two quarters, short of Midsize production in the second half of 2027. The PIF’s $1.75 billion stretches that to about three and a half quarters, into the fourth quarter of 2027, Lucid says. Of course, the new PIF debt ranks ahead of common shareholders.
TIKR tracks 11 analysts on Lucid. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Lucid, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Lucid’s Analyst Ratings
Good news for Uber, a yardstick for Rivian
Uber has committed to buy at least 35,000 Lucid vehicles, most of them Midsize robotaxis, and has invested $500 million. Lucid says it hit every milestone due through the third quarter with Uber and Nuro. A loan that funds it through Midsize makes that order a lot safer.
Rivian burned about as much in its own third quarter, $1.12 billion, but has $7.1 billion of pro forma liquidity, and R2 is already its best-selling vehicle. Its next report has to show R2 shrinking that burn.
Cheap, and now funded
Even after today’s jump, Lucid trades near the bottom of its five-year range on forward sales:
The multiple closed Monday at 0.7x, against a five-year average of 10x, and sits at about 0.8x today. Investors doubted Lucid could pay its way to Midsize, and the PIF just covered the gap. I think the jump is earned. But if Midsize slips again, Lucid will need more money before it sells a single one.
So what is Lucid stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
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