Key Takeaways
- Lucid shares jumped 12% on Wednesday in a broad rally after Democrats won the midterms. The company reports its third quarter after the close on Monday, Nov. 9.
- The jump came from the election, so the report has to show cash burn shrinking for the rally to have a business behind it.
- Analysts expect free cash flow of about -$968 million for the whole second half of 2026, against -$2.91 billion in the first half, after three straight quarters of heavier burn.
- Rivian’s and Ford’s EV results show that losses and cash burn can move for reasons other than better cars, and Uber is waiting on Lucid’s robotaxi schedule.
Lucid Group (LCID) jumped 12% on Wednesday as stocks rallied after Democrats swept the midterms. Its third-quarter report, due Monday, Nov. 9, after the close, will show whether the business can back up the jump.
Peers have shown what to look for. Rivian Automotive (RIVN) narrowed its car losses while its cash burn got worse, and Ford Motor (F) shrank its EV losses by selling fewer EVs. Uber (UBER), which committed to buy at least 35,000 Lucid vehicles for robotaxis, needs Monday’s production update.
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Wednesday’s jump came from the election
Lucid had no news of its own on Wednesday. The stock rose with a broad post-election rally in riskier names, which TIKR covered as it happened. I suspect part of it is a bet that a Democratic Congress will be friendlier to EVs. Lucid’s numbers don’t show anything like that yet.
Citigroup’s 13F for the quarter ended Sept. 30 shows it more than doubled its Lucid stake, to 4.25 million shares. That stake was worth $17.3 million at quarter-end, a sliver of the $308.3 billion in stocks the filing lists.
The business hasn’t given investors much to cheer. Analysts have cut their 2026 revenue estimate by 22% since June 30. They now expect modest growth this year, then more than double the sales in 2027:
Even this year’s $1.55 billion needs about $860 million of revenue in the second half. That’s roughly 25% more than the first half’s $688 million, and third-quarter deliveries fell 4% from the second quarter, to 3,806. Monday could push that estimate lower.
So the stock was already priced for doubt, at 0.6x forward sales on Oct. 30, its lowest in five years:
Wednesday’s jump still leaves it well under 1x. At that price, investors either doubt Lucid will reach its 2027 and 2028 sales or expect whoever funds the wait to take most of the gains.
Cash burn has to start shrinking
And the cash burn got worse in each of the last three reported quarters…
Analysts expect about -$968 million for the second half, against -$2.91 billion in the first.
Some help is built in, because Lucid delivered 852 more cars than it built last quarter. But second-quarter gross margin before $300 million of write-downs was -31.3%, barely better than -33.8% a year earlier.
What Rivian and Ford already told us
Rivian’s burn worsened as it built R2 inventory, while Lucid is running inventory down. Ford’s Model e cut its loss 25% on 31% fewer EV sales, and Lucid ended its second shift in Arizona in June. Neither path proves each car loses less.
Uber is waiting on the robotaxis
Uber expects about 700 driverless vehicles on its platform by year-end, so Lucid’s robotaxi timing matters. Funding does too, since about $400 million is left undrawn on the Public Investment Fund’s term loan.
The bar for Monday
The 12% jump was a bet on the election. For the rally to hold, Monday needs three things:
- free cash flow well short of the second quarter’s -$1.48 billion
- a gross margin before write-downs that finally moves
- funding for 2027 that doesn’t put more claims ahead of shareholders
Lower burn that comes only from selling down inventory won’t be enough.
So what is Lucid stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
