Key Takeaways for Arm Holdings Stock as of July 2026
- 20 buy ratings and 7 outperforms anchor a bullish 41-analyst panel on Arm Holdings stock, but the $299 mean target sits almost exactly at the $299 price, a gap near zero.
- Trading at $299 today, the stock carries a TIKR mid-case target of $1,696 by March 2031, a 467% total return worth 45% annualized over 4.7 years.
- Arm reports Q1 fiscal 2027 results on July 29, 2026, the next trajectory test after data center royalty revenue more than doubled year over year last quarter.
Arm Holdings Stock Slides to $299, Testing Whether the AI Data Center Story Holds
Arm Holdings (ARM) stock closed at $299 on July 13, 2026, down 7.55% on the day, landing almost exactly on Wall Street’s $299 mean target for the first time since the shares traded near their 52-week low of $100.
That pullback follows a fiscal fourth quarter that produced record numbers. Revenue hit $1.49 billion, up 20% year over year, and non-GAAP EPS reached $0.60, both company records.
Speaking to analysts after the print, CEO Rene Haas addressed the strength behind the Cloud AI royalty line directly. “We are very bullish about this data center demand,” he said, adding that the quarter included a “pretty healthy uptick in terms of royalties associated with the data center.”
That confidence has numbers behind it. Customer demand for the new Arm AGI CPU has climbed past $2 billion across fiscal 2027 and 2028, more than double the $1 billion commitment management laid out in March.
But Arm has only secured chip supply, memory and packaging capacity to cover the first $1 billion of that demand. The unsecured second billion is exactly what sent the stock down 5.49% in the hours after the May print, even after the earnings beat.
The competitive backdrop keeps tilting in Arm’s favor regardless. Google’s TPU 8t and TPU 8i systems now replace x86 host processors with Arm-based Axion CPUs entirely, delivering an 80% performance improvement at half the power. AWS is scaling Graviton alongside Trainium, and Microsoft is advancing its own Arm-based Cobalt chips for Azure.
Data center royalty revenue more than doubled year over year again in the quarter, and Arm-based compute now holds roughly 50% share with top hyperscalers. Arm reports first-quarter fiscal 2027 results on July 29, 2026, the next checkpoint on whether that momentum is closing the supply gap.
Wall Street’s 41-Analyst Panel Splits on Arm Holdings Stock’s Next Leg
Wall Street holds a decisively bullish tilt toward Arm Holdings stock, with 20 buy ratings, 7 outperforms and 11 holds against just 1 underperform and 2 sells among the 41 analysts covering the name.
Even so, the $299 mean target sits almost exactly on top of the $299 closing price, implying essentially flat near-term upside, while the target range still stretches from $125 on the low end to $500 on the high end. That split reflects a Street divided between confidence in Arm’s data center trajectory and caution over the chip supply constraints management flagged following the fiscal fourth-quarter print in May.
Wall Street Sees Arm Holdings Stock’s Normalized EPS Growth Reaccelerating to 29%
Arm posted normalized EPS of $0.60 in the fiscal fourth quarter, up 9% year over year and a company record. Wall Street expects that pace to cool before it reaccelerates. Consensus has normalized EPS at $0.40 in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, up 14%, and $0.43 in the second, up 11%.
The growth rate then jumps. Normalized EPS is expected to reach $0.55 in the third quarter, up 28% year over year, then $0.77 in the fourth, up 29%, before the annual comparison climbs to 45% in the first quarter of fiscal 2028 on $0.58.
Whether Arm hits those numbers depends on converting its $2 billion AGI CPU order book into secured supply. Right now, production capacity is only locked in for the first $1 billion.
TIKR’s Model Prices Arm Holdings Stock at $1,696, Betting on a Data Center Breakout
TIKR’s mid-case model values Arm Holdings at $1,696 by March 2031, implying a 467% total return from the current price of $299, or 45% annualized over 4.7 years.
That scale of return would place Arm’s implied trajectory well ahead of the broader semiconductor sector, positioning the stock as one of the highest-conviction long-duration growth cases in AI infrastructure.
The target is reachable because both growth vectors behind it are already scaling. Data center royalty revenue more than doubled year over year in the fiscal fourth quarter, and management’s line of sight on AGI CPU demand has already doubled past its original $1 billion commitment to $2 billion.
Should You Invest in Arm Holdings plc?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Arm Holdings plc stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Arm Holdings plc alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
Access Professional Tools to Analyze ARM stock on TIKR for Free →
Looking for New Opportunities?
- See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money.
- Analyze stocks in as little as 5 minutes with TIKR’s all-in-one, easy-to-use platform.
- The more rocks you overturn… the more opportunities you’ll uncover. Search 100K+ global stocks, global top investor holdings, and more with TIKR.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
