Key Stats for Shopify Stock
- Price change for Shopify stock in Last 6 Months: -21%
- $SHOP Stock Price as of Jul. 13: $125
- 52-Week High: $182
- $SHOP Stock Price Target: $149
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What Happened?
Shopify (SHOP) stock got a vote of confidence from Wall Street this week. Jefferies upgraded the stock to buy from hold and raised its price target to $160 from $140. That new target implies 31% upside from where shares closed on Friday.
This comes even though Shopify stock is down 21% this year, trailing the S&P 500.
Analyst Samad Samana says Shopify is well positioned for what’s called “agentic commerce.” That’s when AI tools shop and buy things on behalf of a customer, instead of a person clicking through a website themselves.
Samana wrote that Shopify looks set to become the infrastructure layer for this kind of shopping, along with the toolkit merchants need to plug into it.
Jefferies also pointed to strength already showing up in the business. The firm has been tracking web traffic to Shopify’s shop.app subdomains and found it closely tracks GMV, with a 94% correlation dating back to early 2023.
Based on that traffic data, Jefferies believes Shopify could beat Wall Street’s forecast of 27% GMV growth in Q2.
Two other factors are shaping the bullish call.
First, Shopify is changing its partner commission structure in August, tying payouts more closely to the actual value partners create. Jefferies thinks this will push partners to land bigger merchants and stick around to help them succeed, rather than coasting on old commissions.
Second, Jefferies expects a price increase. Shopify hasn’t raised non-Plus pricing since a 33-34% hike back in 2023, and Plus pricing has been flat since a 25% increase in 2024.
Since then, the company has rolled out new features like its Sidekick AI assistant, largely absorbing the cost itself.
With more merchants actually using and getting value from Sidekick, Jefferies thinks Shopify has room to raise prices again. Management hasn’t confirmed anything, but Jefferies estimates a hike similar to 2023’s could add 3-4% to 2027 revenue, with most of that falling straight to profit.
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What the Market Is Telling Us About Shopify Stock
The upgrade suggests analysts see Shopify stock as undervalued given its underlying momentum. The company just posted its strongest U.S. growth in four years and its best overall growth in years, with GMV topping $100 billion for a second straight quarter.
Jefferies frames the agentic commerce opportunity as a modest but steady tailwind for GMV over the next few years, not an overnight transformation.
Combined with the pricing opportunity and partner program changes, the firm sees several paths for Shopify stock to work from here, even after a rough year-to-date stretch.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
