Key Stats for American Express Stock
- Past-Week Performance: -3%
- 52-week Range: $220 to $387
- Valuation Model Target Price: $453
- Implied Upside: 29.5% over 2.9 years
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What Happened?
American Express Company American Express Company stock slipped about 3% over the past week, ending near $350 per share as shares pulled back from recent highs.
The move developed steadily and reflected selling pressure following analyst revisions rather than a single negative company-specific headline.
The decline followed post-earnings digestion, with shares having recently traded close to a 52-week high near $387.
After American Express reported strong results but reaffirmed guidance largely in line with expectations, incremental buying slowed and investors locked in gains, particularly given the stock’s premium valuation relative to most financial peers.
Analyst updates during the week reinforced the pullback. JPMorgan cut its price target to $375 from $385 and maintained a Neutral rating, implying roughly 6.5% upside from current levels.
Truist Financial lowered its price target to $400 from $420 while keeping a Buy rating, implying about 13.6% upside.
While ratings were maintained, the downward revisions signaled more limited near-term upside, contributing to selling pressure after the stock’s recent run.
Recent earnings results continue to support the longer-term setup. American Express reported Q4 revenue of $19 billion, up 10% year over year, with net income rising 13% to $2.5 billion, driven by strong cardmember spending.
Net card fees increased 17%, and management guided for 9% to 10% revenue growth and $17.30 to $17.90 in EPS for 2026, alongside a 16% dividend increase to $0.95 per share.
Despite the solid update, last week’s move suggests the market recalibrated expectations rather than re-rating the stock higher immediately.
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Is American Express Undervalued?
Under current assumptions, American Express is being valued using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 8.8%
- Operating Margins: 26.9%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 17.6x
Revenue growth remains supported by premium cardmember spending, particularly in travel, dining, and cross-border transactions where American Express consistently earns higher fees per dollar spent.
The company’s closed-loop network allows spending growth to convert into revenue more efficiently than mass-market card issuers, reinforcing durability as growth normalizes.
Profitability remains a central driver of value, with operating margins holding near the high end of historical ranges due to disciplined expense management and stable credit trends.
As loss rates normalize, incremental revenue is more likely to flow through to earnings rather than being absorbed by higher provisions.
At current levels, the stock reflects confidence in earnings durability but does not fully account for sustained premium spending growth and operating leverage.
American Express appears undervalued, with performance over the next year shaped by cardmember spending momentum, credit stability, and management’s ability to maintain margin discipline while continuing to invest in premium customer acquisition.
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