Key Stats for NXP Semiconductors Stock
- Past week’s performance: +0.7%
- 52-week range: $148 to $255
- Valuation model target price: $311
- Implied upside: +34.6% over 2.9 years
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What Happened?
NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) stock has inched higher over the past week, and shares now trade close to $231 per share after the company reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 2.
The stock reacted to earnings and the subsequent February 3 earnings call, because investors focused on how NXP is navigating a mixed demand backdrop in automotive and industrial end markets.
Over the last three years, NXP’s revenue, EBITDA, and EPS CAGRs have been slightly negative, but margins have held up well thanks to disciplined cost control and a rich product mix.
Return metrics remain solid, with ROE around 20.7% and ROIC near 13.4%, and this profitability profile helps support the current valuation despite cyclical headwinds.
On the balance sheet, NXP carries roughly $8.96 billion of net debt and a net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio of about 2.3 times, so leverage is meaningful but manageable given cash generation.
The stock also offers a dividend yield near 2.0% with a payout ratio just above 50%, and this income component may have helped limit downside as investors digested the latest numbers.
Looking ahead, the market is watching how NXP executes through upcoming events such as its presentations at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on March 3 and Embedded World 2026 on March 10, together with the next earnings release scheduled for April 27.
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Is NXPI Semiconductors Stock Undervalued?
Under valuation model assumptions realized through mid-2028, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue growth (CAGR): 8.7%
- Operating margins: 33.1%
- Exit P/E multiple: 16.3x
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of $311, implying a 34.6% total return from the current share price of $231 and an annualized return of 10.7% over the next 2.9 years.
Analysts currently expect forward two-year revenue, EBITDA, and EPS CAGRs of roughly 10.0%, 12.2%, and 18.8%, and these forecasts help underpin the valuation model’s assumptions.
If NXP can capitalize on secular demand in automotive electronics, secure connectivity, and industrial automation, then earnings growth could track or even modestly exceed those forecasts without requiring aggressive multiple expansion.
Overall, the model points to solid but not explosive potential returns, and it frames NXP as a quality, profitable semiconductor name where execution on growth and margins will be the key determinants of whether that upside is realized.
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