Key Takeaways
- Alphabet stock has gained 46% over the past year to close at $352 on October 9, 2026, and in that time Q2 Cloud revenue rose 82% YoY to $24.8B.
- Analysts hold 44 Buys, 13 Outperforms, 5 Holds, and 1 No Opinion, with the $429 mean target ~22% above the close.
- TIKR’s mid-case model values GOOGL at $708 by December 2030, implying a 101.5% total return, or 18% a year.
- Alphabet reports Q3 results on October 28.
Alphabet Stock Is Up 46% Over One Year After an 82% Cloud Quarter
Alphabet (GOOGL) stock has gained 46% over the past year to close at $352 on October 9, 2026, nine days after Google announced Gemini 4 Argon, its new flagship AI model. Along the way, Alphabet reported a second quarter in which Google Cloud revenue rose 82% to $24.8 billion.
The path ran in four legs:
- The stock climbed from the mid-$240s to $313 by December 31 and peaked in the low $340s in February. It then fell to $288 on March 31 and touched the mid-$270s in April.
- It rallied to near $400 by mid-May. In June, Alphabet said it was looking to raise $80 billion in equity offerings, including an investment from Berkshire Hathaway, and later increased the size to $84.75 billion. Shares closed the quarter at $357.
- On July 22, Alphabet reported revenue up 24% to $119.8 billion, against an IBES estimate of $116.9 billion.
- The stock slipped to the low $320s by late July, jumped near $378 in early August, then settled in the mid-$340s, closing at $344 on September 30.
CFO Anat Ashkenazi addressed the Cloud number on the Q2 earnings call: “Cloud revenue growth accelerated meaningfully even after excluding the impact of TPU system sales.” On the same call, she raised 2026 capital spending (capex) guidance to $195 billion to $205 billion, from $180 billion to $190 billion.
The one-year chart runs from the mid-$240s to $352, through a fourth-quarter climb, an April low, a May rally, and a range in the $340s since August.
Google Cloud revenue rose 82% to $24.8 billion in Q2, while Alphabet lifted its 2026 capex guidance to as much as $205 billion. Track GOOGL’s quarterly results on TIKR for free →
Analysts Lifted Their Alphabet Stock Targets 80% as Holds Fell to 5
Analysts now rate GOOGL with 44 Buys, 13 Outperforms, 5 Holds, and 1 No Opinion. Holds are down from 11 on September 30, 2025. The mean price target rose 80% over that span, from $239 to $429, and sits 22% above the $352 close. The lowest of 54 price targets is $340, about 3% below the current price.
TIKR’s Model Puts Alphabet Stock at $708 by 2030
I ran a mid case with revenue growing 16.8% a year, a net income margin of 33.5%, and the P/E shrinking 2.6% a year. Growth sits a touch above last year’s 15.1%. The margin runs nearly five points above last year’s 28.6%.
I set growth there because Ashkenazi said Alphabet expects to recognize just over 50% of its $514 billion Cloud backlog as revenue over the next 24 months.
The model lands at $708 by December 31, 2030. That’s a 101.5% total return from the $352 close over 4.2 years, or 18% a year.
By my math, $708 sits about 38% above the Street’s highest target of $515.
Margin is the input to watch. Ashkenazi said the jump in infrastructure investment will “continue to put pressure on the P&L.” Q3 results on October 28 will offer the next look at whether Alphabet’s profitability supports the model’s 33.5% net margin assumption.
My mid case builds in a 33.5% net margin by 2030. Disagree? Run your own GOOGL assumptions on TIKR for free →
So what is Alphabet stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what GOOGL stock could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
