Key Stats for AirbnbStock
- 52-Week Range: $111 to $147
- Current Price: $134
- Street Mean Target: $156
- Street High Target: $181
- Analyst Consensus: 19 Buys / 4 Outperforms / 18 Holds / 2 Sells
- TIKR Model Target (Dec. 2030): $308
Airbnb Stock Beat Q1 Revenue by 2 Points and Raised the Full-Year Bar
Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) posted Q1 2026 revenue of $2.68 billion, an 18% year-over-year increase that cleared the high end of its own guidance by 2 full percentage points.
Gross Booking Value rose 19% year-over-year to around $29 billion, driven by both volume growth and continued strength in average daily rates.
Nights and Seats Booked increased 9% to 156 million, a figure that included an estimated 100-basis-point drag from elevated cancellations tied to the Middle East conflict.
Chesky flagged on the earnings call that absent the conflict headwind, nights and seats booked growth would have been approximately 10%, an acceleration relative to Q1 2025.
Adjusted EBITDA reached $519 million, up 24% year-over-year, with margins rising to 19% in what is structurally the company’s weakest seasonal quarter.
Net income was $160 million for the quarter, modestly above the prior year despite a one-time $70 million deferred tax adjustment tied to changes to the U.S. Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax.
Free cash flow totaled $1.7 billion in Q1, producing a 64% margin on revenue.
App engagement is accelerating behind the numbers: nights booked through the Airbnb app grew 22% year-over-year and now represent 63% of total nights, up from 58% a year ago.
First-time booker growth hit its highest rate since 2022, with particular strength in Brazil, Japan, and India.
Management raised full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance to low-to-mid teens from the prior “at least low double digits,” and reaffirmed the expectation that full-year adjusted EBITDA margin will be at least 35%.
For Q2, Airbnb guided revenue of $3.54 billion to $3.60 billion, representing 14% to 16% year-over-year growth and a midpoint that sits above the prior consensus.
“We’re raising our guidance for 2026 and now expect year-over-year revenue growth to accelerate to low to mid-teens, and we anticipate our adjusted EBITDA margin to be at least 35%,” said CEO Brian Chesky on the Q1 call.
The World Cup is already showing up in supply: over 100,000 new listings came onto the platform across the 16 host cities ahead of the tournament, and CFO Ellie Mertz noted on the call that cumulative bookings are tracking to make this the largest event in Airbnb’s history.
ABNB Analyst Consensus Is Getting More Bullish as the Growth Reacceleration Takes Hold
The analyst community moved decisively toward Airbnb stock following Q1 results, with 19 buys, 4 outperforms, 18 holds, and 2 sells across 43 analysts.
The street’s mean target stands at $156, implying around 16% upside from the current price of $135, with the high target sitting at $181.
Consensus EPS for Q2 stands at $1.22, a roughly 18% increase year-over-year, with Q3 consensus at $2.71, implying around 23% growth over the same quarter last year.
Full-year 2026 revenue consensus sits at around $15 billion, which is consistent with the low-to-mid-teens growth trajectory management just formalized.
EBITDA for Q2 is estimated at around $1.23 billion, representing margin expansion of approximately 34% quarter-over-quarter from Q1’s seasonally low base.
Free cash flow is expected to rebound sharply through the back half of the year, with Q3 consensus at around $1.46 billion and a 32% FCF margin.
Multiple brokerages lifted targets after earnings, with B. Riley going to $180, RBC Capital to $173, TD Cowen and Susquehanna each to $170, and Jefferies subsequently cutting to $160 after the World Cup run-up before the current price settled near $135.
The argument for ABNB is built on compounding monetization levers: Reserve Now Pay Later, which now drives roughly 20% of global GBV, is still in early rollout on desktop and in several international markets; the hotel pilot is showing all top-line metrics growing at more than double the pace of the core business; and the simplified single-service-fee structure, now covering over 25% of active listings, is lifting take rates without requiring volume acceleration.
The risk the skeptics are watching is concentrated in two places: the Middle East conflict, which Airbnb estimates will trim Q2 nights and seats booked growth by roughly 1 percentage point, and a wave of insider selling that totaled tens of millions of dollars across Chesky, co-founder Joseph Gebbia, CFO Ellie Mertz, and Chief Strategy Officer Nathan Blecharczyk between late May and early June.
TIKR’s $308 Base Case on ABNB Stock and the Three Scenarios That Shape It
TIKR’s base case values Airbnb at approximately $308 by December 2030, implying around 129% total return from the current price of around $135, or roughly 20% annualized over the next 4.6 years.
If Airbnb executes on the mid-case assumptions — a 9% revenue CAGR from 2025 to 2035, net income margins expanding to approximately 28%, and EPS growing at around 16% per year — the TIKR model produces a stock price of approximately $486 by December 2034, an annualized return of around 16%.
If growth decelerates to the low-case trajectory, with revenue CAGR of around 8% and net income margins of approximately 26%, the model generates a stock price of approximately $362 by December 2034, still representing around 12% annualized returns from today.
If the World Cup demand catalyst, hotel penetration, and continued Reserve Now Pay Later rollout accelerate growth to the high-case scenario — 10% revenue CAGR and net income margins near 29% — the TIKR model prices ABNB at approximately $638 by December 2034, implying roughly 20% annualized returns.
The critical variable across all three scenarios is whether the 35% adjusted EBITDA margin floor that management just reaffirmed becomes a durable ceiling or a launchpad, and the company’s track record on cost per booking (down roughly 10% year-over-year in Q1 from AI-driven customer support improvements) suggests the latter is more likely.
Is Airbnb Stock a Buy Right Now?
At $135, Airbnb stock is trading approximately 16% below the analyst consensus target of $156, with 19 buy ratings and a TIKR base case implying around 129% total return by December 2030.
The investment case rests on accelerating revenue growth (raised to low-to-mid teens for full-year 2026), a 35% adjusted EBITDA margin floor, and multiple monetization levers — Reserve Now Pay Later, hotel penetration, and fee simplification — that are still in early innings.
The main risk is the Middle East conflict headwind and insider selling pressure at current prices.
What Do Analysts Say About ABNB Stock?
Wall Street holds 19 buy ratings, 4 outperforms, 18 holds, and 2 sells on Airbnb as of June 2026. The mean price target is $156, with the high target at $181.
Multiple brokerages lifted targets following Q1 results, citing the guidance raise to low-to-mid-teens revenue growth for the full year and the confirmation of at least 35% adjusted EBITDA margins, which exceeded the prior “stable” guidance.
Should You Invest in Airbnb, Inc.?
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