Key Stats for Adobe Stock
- 52-Week Range: $224 to $421
- Current Price: $240
- Street Mean Target: $327
- Street High Target: $487
- Analyst Consensus: 12 Buys / 3 Outperforms / 20 Holds / 4 Sells
- TIKR Model Target (Nov. 2030): $392
Adobe Stock Down 43% From Its 52-Week High After a Quarter Where Revenue Hit a Record $6.4 Billion
Adobe Inc. (ADBE), the creative and marketing software platform serving over 850 million monthly active users, reported record Q1 fiscal 2026 revenue of $6.40 billion, growing 12% year-over-year, while Adobe stock continued to slide toward its 52-week low on persistent fears that AI will erode its business.
The result was not close.
Revenue of $6.4 billion came in ahead of the prior guidance range of $6.25 billion to $6.30 billion, and non-GAAP EPS of $6.06 grew 19% year-over-year, the fastest pace in recent quarters.
Total Adobe ARR exited the quarter at $26.06 billion, growing 11% year-over-year, while subscription revenue of $6.17 billion grew 13% year-over-year.
The AI product lines that investors have been waiting to see scale are actually scaling: AI-first applications ending ARR more than tripled year-over-year, Firefly credit consumption rose more than 45% quarter-over-quarter, and GenStudio and AEP and apps each grew ending ARR over 30% year-over-year.
CEO Shantanu Narayen addressed the AI transition directly on the Q1 call: “In Q1, we surpassed 850 million monthly active users of Acrobat, Creative Cloud, Express and Firefly, achieving 17% year-over-year growth, a clear indication that we have both strong usage and a foundation for monetization.”
The one genuine stumble was in traditional stock content, where management acknowledged a steeper-than-expected decline in its standalone stock book of business, a segment Narayen sized at approximately $450 million.
Narayen framed it in context: excluding that business, total Adobe ARR growth would have been approximately 11.2% rather than the reported 10.9%, a difference that does not explain a 43% drawdown from the 52-week high.
In April, Adobe completed the acquisition of Semrush, strengthening its brand visibility offering with SEO and generative engine optimization capabilities, and announced a new $25 billion share repurchase program running through April 2030.
At the Adobe Summit investor session, CFO Dan Durn called the buyback “a direct expression of confidence in our robust cash flow and the long-term value we are delivering to investors.”
Analyst Consensus Reflects AI Anxiety, Not a Broken Business: What the Numbers Actually Show for ADBE
The sell-side is split on Adobe stock in a way that has not been typical for a company with this margin profile, and the distribution of that split tells the story of the valuation dislocation.
Of 34 analysts with ratings as of late May 2026, 20 are at Hold and 4 are at Sell, a posture that reflects broad-based concern rather than a thesis-driven bear case rooted in earnings model deterioration.
The consensus projects revenue of approximately $6.45 billion in Q2 fiscal 2026, growing around 10% year-over-year, followed by continued mid-to-high single-digit growth through the following fiscal year.
On EPS, the consensus projects normalized EPS of $5.83 for the quarter ending May 2026, growing around 15% year-over-year, with the trajectory extending to around $6.58 by the quarter ending February 2027, representing around 9% year-over-year growth in that period.
Free cash flow of approximately $2.27 billion is expected for Q2 fiscal 2026, representing roughly 35% FCF margin even as the company funds accelerating AI product investment.
The Street mean target of around $327 implies roughly 36% upside from the current price near $240, and the Street high target of around $487 implies more than 100% upside for those expecting a full re-rating.
The conviction problem is visible in the consensus grade shift: as recently as February 2026, there were 17 Buys and 15 Holds with 4 Sells; the most recent count shows 12 Buys, 3 Outperforms, 20 Holds, and 4 Sells.
Mizuho’s April downgrade to neutral captured the prevailing caution, with the firm flagging competition in prosumer and SMB segments from Canva as a threat to long-term terminal value, while noting that AI-first ARR represented less than 2% of total ARR of approximately $26 billion.
The catalyst the bears are waiting on is the same one the bulls are already pricing at a discount: if Firefly ARR, currently past $250 million and growing 75% quarter-over-quarter, sustains velocity into the back half of fiscal 2026, the argument for the current multiple compresses rapidly.
TIKR’s $392 Target on ADBE Stock: What the Model Requires, and Where It Could Break
TIKR’s base case values Adobe stock at approximately $392 by November 2030, implying around 63% total return from the current price near $240, or roughly 11% annualized over approximately 4.5 years.
The mid case assumes revenue growth of approximately 10% per year, a net income margin of around 36%, and EPS growth of roughly 11% per year, with a modest P/E contraction of around 4% annually, reflecting a market that continues to apply skepticism to the multiple.
The tension in the mid case is precisely that multiple contraction assumption: even with double-digit EPS compounding, the model requires the market to stop further de-rating the stock for the target to be reached on schedule.
If AI adoption in Firefly and GenStudio accelerates faster than consensus, the high case applies: approximately $743 per share by November 2030, implying around 209% total return, or roughly 14% annualized, driven by revenue growth of approximately 11%, net income margins of around 38%, and P/E contraction limited to around 3% per year.
The low case, where revenue grows at approximately 9%, margins compress to around 34%, and P/E declines around 5% annually, still produces approximately $440 per share by November 2030, roughly 83% total return, or around 7% annualized.
Adobe stock is undervalued at the current price near $240, where even the low case delivers more than 80% total return over the model’s 4.5-year horizon, and the base case implies a business the market is currently pricing for permanent impairment despite three consecutive quarters of operating outperformance.
Is Adobe stock a buy right now?
The TIKR base case values Adobe stock at approximately $392 by November 2030, implying around 63% total return and roughly 11% annualized from the current price near $240. Even the low case delivers around 83% total return over that period.
Adobe reported Q1 fiscal 2026 revenue of $6.4 billion, growing 12% year-over-year, with non-GAAP EPS of $6.06 growing 19% year-over-year.
The key variable is whether Firefly ARR, now past $250 million and growing 75% quarter-over-quarter, sustains its pace into the back half of fiscal 2026.
What is the price target for ADBE stock?
The Street mean target for ADBE stock stands at approximately $327 as of late May 2026, implying roughly 36% upside from the current price near $240.
The Street high target sits at approximately $487, implying over 100% upside.
Of 34 analysts covering the stock, 12 rate it Buy, 3 Outperform, 20 Hold, and 4 Sell, with the consensus skewed cautious despite double-digit revenue and EPS growth.
What happened to Adobe stock in 2026?
Adobe stock fell more than 40% year-to-date through late May 2026, driven by sector-wide AI disruption fears rather than deteriorating fundamentals. Q1 fiscal 2026 revenue hit a record $6.4 billion, non-GAAP EPS grew 19% year-over-year, and total ARR grew 11% to $26.06 billion.
Adobe responded with a $25 billion stock buyback program authorized through April 2030, and completed the acquisition of Semrush in April 2026 to strengthen its brand visibility platform.
Should You Invest in Adobe Inc.?
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