Key Takeaways
- 23 big funds bought or added to Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) by June 30, and many of the same funds trimmed NVIDIA (NVDA), Broadcom (AVGO), and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM).
- Analysts expect AMD’s earnings per share to more than double in 2027, as its Helios AI racks ramp up.
- AMD trades at 45x forward earnings, well above its own five-year average and the multiples of its three rivals, and analysts see less upside in it than in the other three.
- AMD’s Q4 guidance is the first real test of that 2027 step, and I’d wait for it before buying.
Twenty-three big funds bought shares of Advanced Micro Devices in Q2. That’s according to their latest 13Fs, which cover the quarter ended June 30 and were filed from July 29 to Aug. 14.
AMD reports its Q3 in the next few days, so anyone tempted to follow them has a decision to make.
The same funds cut NVIDIA and Broadcom
Eighteen of the 23 opened new positions, and five added to old ones.
Dragoneer Investment Group put 19.3% of its 13F stocks into AMD, and Whale Rock Capital grew its stake more than twentyfold, making AMD its second-largest holding. Chase Coleman’s Tiger Global and Sands Capital opened stakes worth $392 million and $391 million.
The same filings show many of them cutting AMD’s rivals. Dragoneer sold all of its NVIDIA shares, which had made up 21.7% of its portfolio on March 31.
Whale Rock cut its Broadcom stake 92%, and Sands cut its Taiwan Semiconductor stake by a third. Four smaller funds sold all of their Broadcom and opened AMD positions in the same quarter.
A 13F shows only what a fund held on June 30, so we don’t know what these funds paid or whether they still own the shares. Since June 30, AMD’s stock is down 13%, about as much as Broadcom’s and TSMC’s, while NVIDIA’s is up 3%.
TIKR tracks 55 analysts on AMD. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on AMD, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See AMD’s Analyst Ratings
Wall Street expects AMD’s earnings to double in 2027
Analysts expect AMD’s normalized EPS to climb from $4.17 in 2025 to $7.62 this year and $15.93 in 2027:
That step depends on two things. The first is Helios rack shipments to OpenAI, Meta, and Anthropic, which began in September with a bigger ramp due in Q4.
The second is server chips: management guides server revenue up more than 80% in the second half of 2026.
Investors are already paying for a lot of that. AMD trades at 45x forward earnings, down from this year’s peak of 67x but well above its five-year average of 35x:
That’s a steep premium to the chipmakers these funds trimmed. NVIDIA trades at about 17x forward earnings, below its own five-year average of 36x, while TSMC trades at about 17x and Broadcom trades at about 19x.
Each has its own baggage, from NVIDIA’s lease guarantees for OpenAI to Broadcom’s $43 billion backstop on Anthropic’s chip financing. But AMD is the one priced for 2027 to go right.
Analysts see less upside in AMD, too. The 55 analysts covering it have an average target of $640, 27% above Friday’s close. The upside is 61% for NVIDIA, 44% for TSMC and 63% for Broadcom.
AMD’s average target has still climbed fast over the past year, from $240:
I’d wait for the Q4 guidance
Management guided Q3 revenue to about $13.0 billion, give or take $300 million, and Wall Street expects $13.09 billion. The Q4 guide matters more: the full-year consensus implies $16.2 billion of Q4 revenue, up 58% from a year earlier.
PCs are the soft spot. Intel said last week it sees the PC slowdown running through at least the first half of next year, and AMD’s client chips were about 27% of its Q2 sales.
AMD is also paying for its lab deals partly in stock. It granted OpenAI and Meta warrants for up to 320 million shares at a penny each, equal to 19.6% of its shares outstanding.
The funds’ bet on AMD could pay off nicely if Helios ships on schedule. Frankly, though, I’d want to see that Q4 guidance before paying this multiple for a 2027 that hasn’t happened yet.
If I could only buy one of these four chipmakers today, it’d be NVIDIA, for the lower multiple and the bigger upside on analysts’ targets.
Of course, if AMD’s guide clears that bar, I’d look again. And the funds’ next 13Fs, due by Nov. 16, will show which of them held on through the drop.
So what is AMD stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
