Key Takeaways
- Bloomberg’s average analyst estimates have AMD’s net income growing 501% over four years, ahead of Broadcom and Nvidia. AMD reports third-quarter results on November 3.
- Most of the growth lands in 2027, when analysts expect EPS to more than double on AI data center sales.
- Intel’s PC warning hit the smaller part of AMD. Client is 27% of sales, and Data Center is 58% and doubling.
- At 45x forward earnings, AMD needs a fourth-quarter guide near the $16.2 billion analysts imply just to hold its ground.
Wall Street expects Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) to grow its net income 501% over four years, counting this one. That figure comes from Bloomberg’s average analyst estimates, in a list Jon Erlichman shared on X. It puts AMD well ahead of Broadcom (AVGO) at 306% and Nvidia (NVDA) at 168%.
AMD’s first chance to defend that forecast comes on Tuesday, November 3, when it reports third-quarter results after the close. It goes in bruised. The stock fell 11% on Friday, October 30, after Intel (INTC) warned that its PC slowdown would run at least through the first half of 2027, dragging chip stocks down with it.
The Forecast Leans on 2027
TIKR’s consensus shows how front-loaded that growth is. Analysts expect normalized EPS to climb from $4.17 in 2025 to $7.62 this year, then more than double to $15.93 in 2027.
The 2028 estimate of $22.80 is about 5.5x what AMD earned in 2025, and nearly two-thirds of that climb lands in 2026 and 2027.
The profits are already moving. Quarterly net income reached $2.30 billion in the June 2026 quarter, up from $0.77 billion in the September 2024 quarter.
That latest quarter includes $483 million of investment gains. Without them it’s about $1.8 billion, which is still more than double. Tuesday’s figure will be set against $1.24 billion a year ago.
The 2027 jump is an AI data center bet. On its August call, management said it expects Data Center revenue to more than double next year as its Helios racks ship to customers including OpenAI, Meta, and Anthropic. Analysts took the hint: the 2027 EPS estimate is up about 21% from $13.18 in late July.
TIKR Tracks 55 Analysts on AMD. How Many Say “Buy”?
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Intel’s Warning Hits the Smaller Half of AMD
Intel expects its client revenue to fall more than 20% from the third quarter, and that’s what sank AMD on Friday. But in the second quarter, AMD’s Client segment brought in $3.1 billion, about 27% of sales. Data Center brought in $6.7 billion, or 58%, more than double a year earlier.
AMD had also guided for only slight client growth into the third quarter, so part of a soft PC market is already in the numbers. Intel’s own 78% jump in data center revenue points the other way, on the business that matters more to AMD.
AMD Stock Is Priced for Helios to Arrive on Time
Even after Friday, AMD trades at 45x forward earnings, well above its five-year average of 35x.
That’s down from a 67x peak at the end of June, but it still assumes a good share of 2027’s earnings shows up on schedule. So the third quarter itself matters less than what comes with it. Management guided it to about $13.0 billion of revenue, plus or minus $300 million, against a $13.09 billion consensus.
The number to watch is the fourth-quarter guide. Analysts’ 2026 forecasts imply about $16.2 billion of fourth-quarter revenue, up 58% from a year earlier, as Helios volume builds into the fourth quarter and the first half of 2027.
A guide near $16.2 billion keeps the 2027 estimate rising. One well short would mean Helios is arriving later or smaller, and the 2027 number would come down with it. Management has also said its 2027 outlook depends on customers bringing data center capacity online in time. Any hedging from CEO Lisa Su on that timing would land straight on estimates that have already been raised.
Two Ways to Read AMD’s Quarter
The bull read: Data Center is already 58% of sales and doubling, Helios is ramping, and analysts have raised 2027 by about 21% in three months. On that path, Intel’s PC warning is noise.
The bear read: at 45x, the stock needs a fourth-quarter guide near $16 billion and a confident word on 2027 just to hold where it is. Client is still 27% of sales, and a weak client outlook could trim 2026 even if Helios stays on track.
The PC slowdown is the smaller risk here. Timing is the bigger one, and Tuesday’s fourth-quarter guide is the first real read on it.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!======
